Friday, October 2, 2009

Tracks of my tears

What a difference a day can make. This is National Weather Service Guam's new track forecast for Typhoon Melor as of 1 am. Since I'm checking I thought I'd share.

They say in a 5 am bulletin that "TYPHOON MELOR HAS WOBBLED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS." Melor may become a supertyphoon within 24 hours, they add (IN CAPS).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center tells us a subtropical ridge to the North is steering Melor so it moves "generally West-Northwestward".

That's close enough to make me nervous, though it looks (now) like we'll "just" get a lot of rain as it passes North of Saipan. Small comfort if we look at our neighbors in the Philippines: Katsana was "just" a tropical storm and they're still finding bodies. Typhoon Parma, by the way, has weakened a bit but is still expected to add to their misery as it passes over the Northern Philippines.

In a 3 am Local Statement the NWS reminds us not to focus on the exact forecast track.

This sure beats the old days, using a barometer to tell whether a storm was getting closer and the wind direction to guesstimate from which direction.

4 comments:

Road-Block Blogger said...

The improvement in technology does help in today's age, Yes I remember the barometers and all you was the radio to state what was happening. The sadness of more terror on nations that are still trying to recoup from previous disasters, Melor will not be helping out here at all. Mother Nature is on a roll and she is reminding us who is in charge.

KAP said...

I wish I still had a barometer around; I'd be lost if the internet went down. It would be a good teaching toy for my son anyway.

I was reminded of this by a letter to the NY Times from an American Samoan novelist about the tsunami. She quotes her uncle Opi: "I warned Noelle to lock up and leave as soon as she could. I knew there would be big waves because the quake shook for a good five to six minutes."

The old ways probably saved his life. There's not much time to react if the earthquake is close no matter how good the warning system might be.

KAP said...

The Japan Meteorological Agency has some good stuff, too, though they appear to be stuffy about copyright so I'll just link. Also, they measure winds in knots or meters/second so you have to do conversions if you want mph. Times are UTC.

yobro said...

http://www.homelyscientist.com/2006/10/homemade-barometer-update/

uses liter pop bottles...

or was that litter/

something to do in the rainy times.