Tracks of my tears

What a difference a day can make. This is National Weather Service Guam's new track forecast for Typhoon Melor as of 1 am. Since I'm checking I thought I'd share.

They say in a 5 am bulletin that "TYPHOON MELOR HAS WOBBLED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS." Melor may become a supertyphoon within 24 hours, they add (IN CAPS).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center tells us a subtropical ridge to the North is steering Melor so it moves "generally West-Northwestward".

That's close enough to make me nervous, though it looks (now) like we'll "just" get a lot of rain as it passes North of Saipan. Small comfort if we look at our neighbors in the Philippines: Katsana was "just" a tropical storm and they're still finding bodies. Typhoon Parma, by the way, has weakened a bit but is still expected to add to their misery as it passes over the Northern Philippines.

In a 3 am Local Statement the NWS reminds us not to focus on the exact forecast track.

This sure beats the old days, using a barometer to tell whether a storm was getting closer and the wind direction to guesstimate from which direction.

Good Advice

National Weather Service Guam has posted this forecast track for Tropical Storm Melor... and added in a 'local statement' that WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. Good advice indeed.

They issued a typhoon watch for Rota... Tinian and Saipan (I don't know what they mean with the dots... maybe they stand for Goat Island) at 2:00 am.

Tracking these 800 pound gorillas still isn't an exact science. They use historical data on typhoon behavior, highs and lows in the neighborhood and their possible effects, run it all through various computer models... and then cast some chicken bones.

They say it's moving at about nine mph, kinda good I guess; typhoons intensify more quickly when they slow down.

I feel like I just washed my car

It was tempting fate, I guess. Just two weeks ago I babbled this on the keyboard: "But, really, I'm trying to remember the last time I saw satellite photos of storms lined up approaching us one after another in progressive stages of development."

Melor is the third of a trio that popped up last week, lined up like a train. I almost missed it; I kept trying to check typhoon Parma, which is west of Melor. No coffee yet, and they give storms names when they intensify. (Parma is bad news for the Philippines, they don't need another storm so soon.)

I don't really do updates: witness how I left American Samoa's troubles hanging. Anyone can use a Search Engine and get better, more recent information. So check NWS Guam or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. I hesitate to recommend the JTWC, because it's really supposed to be for government use, but it has great products.

Both sites can be incredibly sluggish when there's a storm nearby, but there's always the cable tv weather channel or, ugh, statements droned over the commercial radio stations. You could even check Angelo's site he seems to be posting a lot of storm updates lately.