Tracks of my tears

What a difference a day can make. This is National Weather Service Guam's new track forecast for Typhoon Melor as of 1 am. Since I'm checking I thought I'd share.

They say in a 5 am bulletin that "TYPHOON MELOR HAS WOBBLED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS." Melor may become a supertyphoon within 24 hours, they add (IN CAPS).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center tells us a subtropical ridge to the North is steering Melor so it moves "generally West-Northwestward".

That's close enough to make me nervous, though it looks (now) like we'll "just" get a lot of rain as it passes North of Saipan. Small comfort if we look at our neighbors in the Philippines: Katsana was "just" a tropical storm and they're still finding bodies. Typhoon Parma, by the way, has weakened a bit but is still expected to add to their misery as it passes over the Northern Philippines.

In a 3 am Local Statement the NWS reminds us not to focus on the exact forecast track.

This sure beats the old days, using a barometer to tell whether a storm was getting closer and the wind direction to guesstimate from which direction.