Thursday, October 1, 2009

Good Advice

National Weather Service Guam has posted this forecast track for Tropical Storm Melor... and added in a 'local statement' that WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. Good advice indeed.

They issued a typhoon watch for Rota... Tinian and Saipan (I don't know what they mean with the dots... maybe they stand for Goat Island) at 2:00 am.

Tracking these 800 pound gorillas still isn't an exact science. They use historical data on typhoon behavior, highs and lows in the neighborhood and their possible effects, run it all through various computer models... and then cast some chicken bones.

They say it's moving at about nine mph, kinda good I guess; typhoons intensify more quickly when they slow down.

I feel like I just washed my car

It was tempting fate, I guess. Just two weeks ago I babbled this on the keyboard: "But, really, I'm trying to remember the last time I saw satellite photos of storms lined up approaching us one after another in progressive stages of development."

Melor is the third of a trio that popped up last week, lined up like a train. I almost missed it; I kept trying to check typhoon Parma, which is west of Melor. No coffee yet, and they give storms names when they intensify. (Parma is bad news for the Philippines, they don't need another storm so soon.)

I don't really do updates: witness how I left American Samoa's troubles hanging. Anyone can use a Search Engine and get better, more recent information. So check NWS Guam or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. I hesitate to recommend the JTWC, because it's really supposed to be for government use, but it has great products.

Both sites can be incredibly sluggish when there's a storm nearby, but there's always the cable tv weather channel or, ugh, statements droned over the commercial radio stations. You could even check Angelo's site he seems to be posting a lot of storm updates lately.

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