CNMI paper implies First Amendment Retaliation

The Marianas Variety suggests, without making a specific accusation, that political retribution is behind the CNMI Department of Public Health pulling its advertising.

That would be troubling, if true -- and illegal. For example, in a quick search for First Amendment Retaliation by governments I found cases from Mississippi and Puerto Rico.

If possible, the newspaper's relations with Gov. Benigno R. Fitial and his administration have become more strained since his re-election, capped by their reporting the governor's controversial massage by a woman who was in federal custody.

I'm hesitant to say more, because the piece is more editorial opening salvo than news story. Tomorrow is another day.

However (heh), I did rummage through some back issues that were squirreled away and DPH doesn't seem to be the only government agency that is migrating away from the Variety and staying with the Saipan Tribune.

Evidently, the Variety learned this Friday, which makes the bare-bones reporting more understandable. Additionally, the paper claims that "Variety reporters covering the executive branch are also not getting replies to their requests for information and comments."

I had wondered why they were getting 'scooped' on stories that are essentially press release journalism.

Obama rasa

Everyone wants a crack at President Barack Obama: demonizers to tell him off, while acolytes would probably be happy just to touch a hem on his garments. Personally, I'm still trying to figure out who is and exactly what the hell he's up to.

Some think they will get their chance this March when he stops over in Guam. My term: I haven't seen anyone phrase it that way, but Guam's still a prime coaling station. Check the oil, kick the tires, stretch your legs and it's on the road again.

Oh, yeah; "he will speak with U.S. service members on the island," according to press secretary Robert Gibbs. Stalwart young men and women, clean cut (no t-shirt slogans and signs) and in the forefront where America's homeland security begins. This sounds like a script borrowed from the latter-day George Bush.

That's not meant to be as flippant and cynical as it sounds: it's what I'd do -- I could probably write the speech. The Guam activists and CNMI politicians looking for meetings and visits will very likely be disappointed. 'Bulwark' will be used once, 'defense' and 'security' several times. Japan will be mentioned, very diplomatically because of the new government's hardened stance on Marines in Okinawa.

It's been a cold winter in Washington figuratively and literally. Time to slide away from the domestic ruckus for a foreign policy War On Terror set-piece. "We're good guys," Indonesians will be told. (Like most of our Muslim allies, their draconian laws will be glossed -- though if anyone drops the word 'madrasa' into the comments I'll attempt to throttle them digitally) "WE are the good guys," he'll assure Australians... and we really wish you'd pony up some troops.

There will be pictures of shy, smiling students and Obama's kids will probably meet a koala. I predict... success.

Somewhere, I picked up the essentially useless nugget that, unlike airliners, Air Force One lands with enough fuel to get out of Dodge. They don't exactly keep the motor running, but that's one of many precautions. I'm sure that's part of the reason for the Guam stop, as is adjusting to different time zones. You don't want your President sounding incoherent due to jet lag.

Questions, yes. Answers not so much

"The U.S Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) have published Question and Answers regarding filing instructions for the E-2 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) Investor Classification", say two email links I just received.

Word-for-word blurbs that refer us to USCIS Questions and Answers where we learn... nothing new.

I doubt if either of my readers has a CNMI-approved lemonade stand they're trying to squeeze in under the new E-2 category, but in any case here's the first Q&A:

Q. Can I file for classification as an E-2 CNMI Investor now?

A. No. The E-2 CNMI Investor rule has not been finalized, so you cannot file for the E-2 CNMI Investor classification. All petitions filed seeking classification as an E-2 CNMI Investor will be returned to the petitioner until the final rule is published. The proposed rule was posted in the Federal Register on September 14, 2009 for a public comment period; that period is now closed.

Paraphrased: nothing to see here; move on.

Bridge to nowhere?

Bridge Investment Group LLC seems to have made a bad bet on its Tinian casino plan. Then again, it appears they were betting against the house-- PL 110-229.

The immigration provisions of that law called for federal restrictions on alien hiring and investment that are much stricter than the CNMI laws and regulations they replaced.

According to the Saipan Tribune two-thirds of BIG's planned units were condominiums. Chinese investors were prominent in previous stories about their plans.

From the comments of spokesman Phillip Mendiola-Long, it would appear the company is hoping that the Department of Homeland Security will include Chinese workers when it issues its 'CW' rules and also issue investment rules with "lowered thresholds".

Neither seems likely. As Mendiola-Long points out, Chinese nationals are not eligible for the H-2 visa program. This year's list of eligible countries* has just been issued. The factors used in designating countries include:

(1) The country's cooperation with respect to issuance of travel documents for citizens, subjects, nationals and residents of that country who are subject to a final order of removal; (2) the number of final and unexecuted orders of removal against citizens, subjects, nationals and residents of that country; (3) the number of orders of removal executed against citizens, subjects, nationals and residents of that country; and (4) such other factors as may serve the U.S. interest.

It seems likely the same factors would apply to 'CW' workers and investors, and 22 reminders are currently awaiting trial for allegedly trying to enter Guam illegally from the CNMI. In addition, only the employment rules were re-opened for further comment, the investment rules are final.

* Argentina, Australia, Belize, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Jamaica, Japan, Lithuania, Mexico, Moldova, The Netherlands, Nicaragua, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Uruguay.

Detainee Massages Governor

The Marianas Variety's Human smuggling defendant is governor’s masseuse gets my vote for story of the year. It's only January, but how can you top that?

The Variety says four Corrections officers escorted a Chinese woman being held for the U.S. Marshal to and from jail so Governor Benigno R. Fitial could get a massage*. Seriously.

Nobody's talking --except the Variety source(s) -- but this has all the makings of a story with legs. I'm amazed the national media haven't picked it up yet.

They will, though this probably isn't the best way to put the CNMI on the map.

Words fail me. Well, almost. It's absolutely amazing that an administration fighting to control alien labor would do this with a human smuggling defendant in federal custody. Who came up with this idea? I don't know, but there are going to be consequences.

Read the story; 'fair use' means I shouldn't quote the whole thing. I'll just wait to hear more from the Attorney General and the feds.

Off massage

Meanwhile, some wag said it was 'work release' program.

Groan. But then, I had to keep up: "I wonder if she was wearing one of those orange jumpsuits?"

Back at me: 'Maybe they thought it was part of the federal stimulus package.'

I gave up before it got out of control.

* For those of you with dirty minds, the Variety carefully notes: "In 2006, Fitial underwent a series of operations to treat his spinal stenosis, a medical condition in which the spinal canal narrows and compresses the spinal cord and nerves." Still, the island is awash in massage parlors; some of them are even legitimate.

BE attitudes

Gov. Benigno R. Fitial and Lt. Gov. Eloy S. Inos deserve a little celebration: it's been a rough four years.

Monday's inauguration caps a first term that was all tunnel, with not much light at its end. But the problems can wait another day or two; it's bad form to squabble when there are guests in the house.

In a classy move, the Governor took the first drive towards rapprochement by going to the house of erstwhile opponent Rep. Heinz S. Hofschneider, meeting with him and House Speaker Arnold I. Palacios, according to the Saipan Tribune. Hofschneider and Palacios returned the gesture by going to Fitial's residence. The rest was nuance.

"We want the feds to know we are working together," Fitial is said to have said. "It's time to get over this," (the election) Hofschneider told the Tribune in a separate interview.

"The political season is over. This is a time for partnership for the people of the CNMI," Inos said. "We wish nothing but success for the Fitial administration as they face the challenges of the Commonwealth," Palacios said.

The Tribune was so impressed by Inos' 'partnership' idea that they attributed it to all four men in the main story's lead sentence.

On the other hand, the Marianas Variety chose not to publicize inauguration events, except for a nod to Palauan President Johnson Toribiong on page six. Maybe that's some form of of the saw 'if you can't say anything good, don't say anything at all'.

Unless it's in the editorial, though even there the ongoing soap opera at Northern Marianas College took top billing. There's more than a touch of irony in editorials headlined 'A house divided' that sound like the election never took place.

Fitial's Administration is chided for fanfare the CNMI can't afford, but warned about relying on "contributions" (the quotation marks were not added) from the private sector. In Friday's Tribune, Inauguration Committee co-chair Teresa Kim was quoted saying "No government funds have been expended."

On a very basic level, what's the difference between campaign contributions and contributions to inauguration events?

In any case, here's the gubernatorial inaugural schedule. Questions about separation of church and state make Red Masses controversial in some jurisdictions, not so much in the Commonwealth.

The RSVP black-tie VIP Ball at the Saipan World Resort and suit-and-tie People's Ball at Fiesta Resort should help keep the fanfare-- and expenses -- down.

Putting detainees on ICE

It can't happen here, probably, but next month's The Nation has a disturbing story about detainees 'disappearing' into Immigration and Customs Enforcement subfield offices.

Author Jacqueline Stevens opens with this jaw-dropping quote from former ICE Office of State and Local Coordination executive director James Pendergraph: "If you don't have enough evidence to charge someone criminally but you think he's illegal, we can make him disappear."

Stevens lists 186 unlisted and unmarked field offices where detainees are held, with anecdotal tales of family and attorneys trying to find people who were detained.

I could quote huge swaths of the article, but I really, strongly suggest you read the original. I think you'll be as appalled as I was. One more excerpt:

ICE refused a request for an interview, selectively responded to questions sent by e-mail and refused to identify the person authorizing the reply--another symptom of ICE thwarting transparency and hence accountability. The anonymous official provided no explanation for ICE not posting a list of subfield office locations and phone numbers or for its lack of a real-time locator database.

I'm making the assumption that it probably can't happen in the CNMI because we're so small. I wonder.

Stuck in the middle

I'm not talking about 'federalization' of minimum wage and immigration control. To me at least, that's been inevitable for a long, long time. All of this noise about whether it 'should' happen is just a distraction (That's still not the best word, but it's better than demagoguery). In the end, like a small animal chasing its tail, you end up in the same place.

No. It's here, and where do we go from here?

Oversimplifying (my specialty), I've read and seen that there are too many 'guest workers'. There likely won't be enough when the CW* workers are phased out in five years.

Boonie Workers

The idea of CNMI-only H-2 workers has been floated. What would that accomplish? The CNMI, and Guam, are not subject to the quota: we can hire as many H-2 workers as we need. There's the rub; the H-2 classification is for skilled workers, while the Commonwealth will probably be short of semi-skilled workers. That proposal sounds like misdirection; an attempt to squeeze CW skills into the H-2 rules. Better we use something like, say, BW (boonie worker).

Any system that attempts to fill permanent positions with an underclass of temporary workers will be abused, and it doesn't matter whether it is administered locally or federally.

The shining path

Guest workers and their advocates argue that the solution is residency and a pathway to citizenship. They also say it is only fair to people who have worked and lived here for 10, 20 or more years.

Some opponents argue that they will be overwhelmed by the sheer number of aliens, losing control. That's already happened, except politically, but we'll set that aside.

Others like the BW system. "What if these people get status and then run to Guam?" they ask.

So here I am, stuck in the middle. Yes, citizenship, out of fairness and equity (though, despite the urban legends, you knew the rules). Yes, don't dilute the culture (but where were you 20 years ago?). Yes, there might not be enough workers when the transition ends (why, after all of these years, aren't our wages closer to Guam's?).

Just the facts, ma'am

Jack Webb got it right, but there aren't many facts to go by. That's another chase-your-own-tail blame game. The economy will change during the transition. How much, and in what ways is anybody's guess.

So far, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services people have been asking for help in getting from here to there. Some see that as a failing on their part. I don't. Rather it's something refreshing, coming as it does from the federal government.

Of course, the Secretary of the Interior is supposed to come out with a report by May 8, 2010 including "the number of aliens in the CNMI, their legal status, the length of the aliens’ stays in the CNMI, the CNMI economy’s need for foreign workers, and recommendations, if deemed appropriate, whether or not legal foreign workers in the CNMI on May 8, 2008, should be able to apply for long-term status under United States law."

Not so fast, Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Interior Nikolao I. Pula testified in May. He asked for another year, arguing that there wasn't enough time to see the trends with DHS delaying its takeover for 180 days.

Here we go again.

* The CW, or unskilled CNMI-only, category is on hold until Immigration goes back and issues its regulations following the Administrative Procedures Act.

Chamorro Savings Time*

I really wasn't going to write about the lawsuit. (Saipan Tribune and Marianas Variety) The Department of Homeland Security still takes over 'after midnight' tonight. Most of the contract workers will still have to be gone in five years. So, what's changed by District Court Judge Paul Friedman's preliminary injunction?

There are no interim rules. We just get the full U.S. immigration package. The CNMI argued, persuasively to me, that DHS didn't follow the Administrative Procedures Act. Okay, the judge said, follow them: propose regulations, give an adequate comment period, consider the comments and then promulgate final rules.

It's like Daylight Savings Time: we can push time back, but only for a few months.

"The commonwealth will continue to operate under its existing labor system except for entry and exit," volunteered part-time attorney Deanne Siemer. Umm. No. We just won't have interim rules to soften the transition yet.

In one of this lawsuit's strange twists, Friedman writes that "The CNMI maintains that the Commonwealth’s guest worker population currently is experiencing high rates of unemployment, and that employers are consequently unlikely to require permits for new guest workers in the near future. Reply at 20-21. Consequently, the United States cannot argue with any degree of certainty that CNMI employers will be harmed by the issuance of a preliminary injunction in this matter."

Got that? Everybody's in limbo. If there are problems, Friedman writes, "To assist either foreign workers seeking to leave and return to the CNMI or employers desperately in need of workers from outside the Commonwealth, DHS may, if necessary, promulgate a narrowly focused and temporary emergency regulation that addresses only the problem at hand."

That's a far cry from Siemer's formulation that "Friedman also virtually commanded DHS to come up with an emergency regulation allowing aliens in the commonwealth to travel in and out."

Rhetorical question: what substantive changes do you expect to see when we get the final regulations?

("The CNMI maintains that the Commonwealth’s guest worker population currently is experiencing high rates of unemployment.")

* I'm not forgetting my Carolinian friends. It's just that I couldn't pass up the word play on Chamorro Standard Time.

Apocalypse Not

I've read some dire predictions about what the Commonwealth faces now that it appears Gov. Benigno R. Fitial will be re-elected. Nothing new, of course, equally dire predictions were made before the runoff about the future under him and under Rep. Heinz S. Hofschneider, the challenger. Two sides, and support hardens to partisanship in the clinches.

I'm a fatalist myself. The government's profligate ways combined with the economy's retrenchment to form not the perfect storm, but the perfect doldrums. I had a definite preference, but there won't be much room to maneuver for either man.

The Pacific Daily News paints a pretty accurate picture in their election story. With a liability of 'close to $500 million' (David Sablan) or 'probably upwards of $1 billion' (Sam McPhetres), the government will likely be reacting to events rather than controlling them.

Any solutions will be complicated, as usual, by the fact that Rota and Tinian use their control of the Senate to say 'me too' and 'me three' whenever appropriations come around. (Another reason a union with Guam is highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. They would never consent to having a Senate with veto power over their larger population, while Rota and Tinian would never give that up.)

Somehow, though the problems will be solved, or at least dealt with, simply because there is no other choice. There will be a lot of pain and suffering. The finger-pointing and second-guessing is likely to continue. More crisis management with the bottom signaled not with a bang but a whimper.

Some of Governor Fitial's detractors have said, or implied, that 'the feds' had a preference in this election, and it wasn't him. The Governor has done nothing to discourage that view. Personally, I view the federal government as a huge, amorphous caterpillar that doesn't have the motor skills to get all of its feet moving in the same direction.

Yes, the Department of Interior didn't announce the release of Compact Impact funds until after the runoff. The progress report on CUC's compliance with its stipulated order came out just before the election. But, at the same time, the Department of Homeland Security's postponement of immigration control until a week after the election seems almost calculated to help the incumbent.

People fear change, and boy, is federal immigration control a big one. Hofschneider and Speaker Arnold I. Palacios meant change from the current policies with their campaign slogan, but it got confounded with 'change to federal control'. In times of crisis it's 'don't change horses in midstream', 'stay the course', 'rally around the flag' or 'let it BE'. (Maybe it's just me, but 'let us finish the job' sounds a bit too ominous.)

My cynical side suspects that the thinking behind the lawsuit attempting to stop federalization was 'even if it doesn't work, it's great for the campaign.' I suppress that side, but it pops up again and suggests that the Marine Monument might have gotten a better reception if it hadn't been proposed with immigration control pending. Outsiders, pushing federalization and taking away local control all dovetail too neatly with the immigration narrative.

McPhetres brings up an interesting point in the PDN article: most of his students get a "warm and fuzzy feeling" from Fitial. I hadn't thought of that, and it's undoubtedly true, though I doubt he'll be pushing Saipanda dolls off of the Duty Free shelves.

I once told Bob Grimac, a former editor of the Marianas Variety that he would probably never understand CNMI politics if he didn't have some familiarity with big-city machine politics. Analogies are never exact, but that one has been pretty useful to me over the years.

The ward heelers were out in force in the gap between the general election and the runoff; you saw many of the free-lancers choosing up sides with their endorsements. Two things: 1) that's meant as an observation, not a judgment and, 2) I'm not saying the term applies to all of the people endorsing one camp or the other.

If you think I'm going to tell you which is which, well, that's tough. Do your own homework.

I've been amused and sometimes irritated by the spokespeople, politicians and columnists who throw out references to 'bloggers' instead of responding to a specific person. It's intellectually dishonest. A straw man: they win by default because you don't know who they're arguing with. *

I agree with some bloggers ten percent of the time and others 90 percent. Only one meets my exacting standards and is 99 percent correct. That's me. I resent being lumped into somebody's spew against bloggers in general.

For instance, here's David North reacting to the latest election. Another hollow man, but not me.

* Yes, I'm doing the same thing. Aren't you clever to catch it?

Jay Solly says no second poll

Jay Solly of Marianas Consulting took exception to my piece Eve of distraction. In the interest of fairness, here is the complete text of his latest Press Release. (I removed the email address, simply because I didn't want to subject him to the spam he would get if it was published on the internet.)

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: JAY SOLLY
November 19, 2009

Second Poll ‘Unnecessary’ In Light of CNMI’s Chilling Political Climate

Saipan—Upon inquiries from media outlets, Marianas Consulting announced today that no additional polling would be conducted in the CNMI leading up to the historic November 23rd gubernatorial run-off elections. The company made this decision in light of the CNMI Governor’s Office and the Covenant Party’s heightened and unparalleled energies expended the day before the November 7th General Election. Though the statistically sound poll disclosed its full methodology as thoroughly or even more so than the University of Guam’s poll published earlier that week, the Governor’s Covenant Party Chairman issued a specious press release in a classic case of “shoot the messenger” chiefly because their candidate was not prevailing. The three other candidates for Governor did not issue statements.

Further, the Governor’s Office openly engaged in eyebrow-raising back-and-forth with a private company and the account of events and depth of involvement leave more questions to be asked than were answered. Consequently, this company terminated an employee with a personal relationship to Marianas Consulting’s principal consultant the same day the poll was released. In media accounts it was acknowledged that they contacted the Governor’s Office to inform that the employee had been let go, a highly unusual action for what was a private and internal personnel matter. Even more curious, the Governor’s Covenant Party thought it appropriate to comment on this personnel issue, offering words of support for the supposed “hurt” caused, but in reality, adding insult to injury.

Principal Consultant, Jay Solly comments, “On a personal note, my family and I are grateful for the outpouring of support from the community. We love Saipan and the kindness and giving hearts exhibited. We look forward to staying and will continue working for the community. It is likely that there would have been no effort to silence, discredit, or intimidate if the numbers were in Covenant’s favor. Again, neither I, nor my company, was contracted by any campaign when this poll was conducted, but now I know with certainty for whom I will not work—the rank amateurism of the Covenant Party opposition research linking Marianas Consulting to an Ontario-based company that happens to share the name made me chuckle. Incidentally, I worked in Moscow in 2005, did they check with Vladimir Putin too?”

Marianas Consulting concedes that a run-off poll again employing random sampling in line with theories of probability would likely be informative and serve well the interests of the people, but as Mr. Solly adds, “even statistics with reported sampling error come under fire in this chilling political climate fostered to stifle dissent. This, coupled with the ‘spiral of silence’ effect—where voters are less likely to voice an opinion if they fear reprisal, job loss, or isolation from the existing political apparatus—make polling in the CNMI uniquely challenging.”

The CNMI-registered company iterates that the only polls that truly matter are election polls where the free exercise of choice is safeguarded.

About Marianas Consulting
Marianas Consulting is a strategy, government & public affairs consulting firm headquartered on the beautiful island of Saipan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, headed by Mr. Jay Solly. Jay has over 12 years of professional experience in political communications, public relations, marketing, and government arenas at the territory, state, and national level. Mr. Solly has advised, managed and worked on 26 campaigns in 14 years.

Whose visa waiver?

Or, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Guam is looking forward to getting its share of Russian and Chinese tourists under the visa waiver program.

"Guam may be able to benefit from a similar program if the one in the CNMI proves successful, (Guam Delegate Madeleine) Bordallo and tourism officials have said," according to the Pacific Daily News.*

Uh, oh. Unfortunately for us, Guam's 'share' will probably be larger than ours. They've got the air connections and a lot more attractions. Hong Kong was just added to the list eligible for Guam waivers. It will be interesting to see how they do in that market.

Another uh, oh: "It will open up English language and educational tourism opportunities of longer duration, thereby expanding the mix and menu of teaching modules that have different time horizons," said Guam Visitors Bureau General Manager Gerry Perez.

Where have we heard this before?

Bordallo was lobbying Homeland Secretary Janet Napolitano for Chinese and Russian to have Guam included in the 'parole' that was eventually approved for the Commonwealth. According to the article, she's still at it.

That may give the CNMI a very small window to get our act together before Guam is competing for the same tourists. Ah, but we've got casinos.

Well, casino. One, and it's not doing that well. A lot of plans, a few silver shovels getting scratched up in 'groundbreakings'. Don't get me wrong. I hope they work out on Tinian. I have the same hopes for Rota. I hope Saipan doesn't fall for that one.

Meanwhile, Rota leaders appear to be having second thoughts: Small-scale casino pushed on Rota.

Umm, do you mean a poker palace?


* I'd appreciate it if one of my two loyal readers lets me know when this link disappears and the article disappears into the vending-machine archives.

The Northwest Pacific by North

I've read dozens of articles about last Tuesday's elections, and the CNMI results weren't mentioned in any of them.

That's not too surprising, I suppose, because of the national media's obsession with What It All Means to Democrats' and Republicans' chances in next year's mid-term elections. A local election involving the Republican and Covenant parties doesn't fit neatly into that narrative.

Google just fed me one exception, not news but a blog at the Center for Immigration Studies titled The Elections and Immigration Policy. David North describes the election results as "one apple, two oranges – and in the distant Western Pacific, a split coconut."

Who is this guy? I thought as I read along. He's obviously knowledgeable, very obviously opinionated and he's got some sort of grudge.' An example: "There was no Democratic candidate but there were two independent ones. These are both named Guerrero, as there seems to be a shortage of last names in the islands."

Hafa? What's that got to do with the subject? I read a previous blog, with the "Disclosure: I worked for the Clinton Administration's Department of the Interior territorial office at the height of the DeLay-Abramoff power." Oh, that David North. (There was a lot of press at the time. Some was harsher, some kinder and gentler, by the usual suspects for the usual reasons.)

It's too bad, if I could ignore the drone of axes being ground, I might agree with much of what he writes. That's tough to do.

The Center for Immigration Studies is popular with people interested in the subject. I have no idea how many of them follow his blog

The Final Countdown

The gubernatorial election? Nah, I wrote a piece about that but, after a bit of reflection (and a second opinion), I decided to hold on to it for now.

The Administration and contract workers basically agree about federal immigration, and neither will be happy come Nov. 28.

Hard to believe, but when you cut through the chatter they both think that our current workforce is permanent, while the main thrust of the immigration provisions in Public Law 110-229 is to gradually eliminate permanent immigrant (a contradiction in terms) workers in the CNMI.

I'm sympathetic to that view, but not convinced.

I recently heard Rep. Heinz S. Hofschneider say 'development is not more auto shops along Beach Road', or words to that effect. I would go further. Development is also not more hotels if you don't have the local workforce to staff the existing hotels*.

Is the local labor force large enough for existing businesses? I think not, but I do know that there is substantial unemployment among resident and contract workers. If I were a cynic, I'd think someone is trying to keep wages low.

A lot of kids will be graduating in the next five years. It's time to pay more than lip service to preparing them for jobs in the economy. If (gasp) more than minimum wage is offered, some residents will return to the CNMI. It's hard to see how a 'soft landing' can be managed during the transition, but it can certainly be made softer.

A little sophistry, please

The Department of Homeland Security has been criticized for not soliciting comments and, almost in the next breath criticized because they're asking for suggestions on how best to manage drawing down the number of Commonwealth-only 'CW' workers. 'They don't have a plan.' Okay, what's your plan?

'How about a CNMI-only H-2 style visa?' former Chamber of Commerce President Jim Arenovski is is supposed to have asked. Well, the reporter caught it: H visas are for temporary workers. (The emphasis is mine.)

The Chamber is also supposed to have bemoaned the fact that no representative of the U.S. Department of Labor was there to explain the 'CW' visas. DHS has the authority and delegates determination of prevailing wages, eligibility and enforcement for most of the lettered visas to DOL. As far as I can tell, that does not include 'CW' visas, which makes sense because eligibility is based on CNMI labor permits.

Local control? Well, that might have been possible following U.S. laws if the suggestion had been made last year during the comment period on this final rule. It included the CNMI in the definition of U.S. effective on the date of DHS assuming immigration control and included this language:

Sec. 655.2 Territory of Guam.

Subpart A of this part does not apply to temporary employment in the Territory of Guam, and the Department of Labor (Department or DOL) does not certify to the USCIS of DHS the temporary employment of nonimmigrant foreign workers under H-2B visas, or enforce compliance with the provisions of the H-2B visa program provisions in the Territory of Guam. Pursuant to DHS regulations, 8 CFR 214.2(h)(6)(v) administration of the H-2B temporary labor certification program is performed by the Governor of Guam, or the Governor's designated representative.

Ah, temporary employment again. We're back to that. U.S. law will not allow us to have permanent immigrant workers after the transition period. The Congress can change that, DHS can't. The District Court in Washington, D.C. could delay implementation, but not change the law. I'm just a lowly layman, but I think the Governor is lucky we probably won't know the results of his lawsuit until after the runoff election.

Non-residents who have been here five, ten or even twenty years say it's unfair that they can't get a pathway to citizenship. I can't argue with that, but again it's up to the U.S. Congress. If enough residents and, particularly, their leaders join with them it could probably be accomplished.

I haven't talked to Greg Cruz, but I've met members of Taotao Tano. I may not always agree with them, but it's easy to understand their anger, their rage in some cases. This government has failed them, unless they get a shot at the brass ring: one of the disappearing government jobs. In cold, economic terms, it's often smarter to collect food stamps and other federal benefits than to work for the local minimum wage. You couldn't do much better if you were trying to create a permanent welfare underclass.

But at least you get those benefits, residents are told, you're U.S. citizens. Why does that remind me of what poor white sharecroppers were told in the antebellum South: 'at least you're not black.' Their anger, and that of others who aren't part of the group, is unfocused.

Sometimes it is aimed at past leaders, sometimes at businesses and sometimes at the contract workers. People with long memories might consider the Commonwealth Bank. It slipped through the door opened when the Bank of Saipan wangled weakened laws and regulations. A lot of people lost their savings. Contract workers came through a door; they were invited to work here. The small business owners who will be forced out eventually under U.S. foreign investment regulations were following existing regulations: a door. It's not their fault.

The Commonwealth was given local control so it could protect local workers and their culture. The result was massive numbers of factory workers who diluted the culture and strained the infrastructure. But the factory owners got greedy. Not only did they exploit their workers-- and I'm cynical enough to admit that might not have done it in itself-- but they grew too large and began threatening U.S. factories and jobs. Compounding their error, they delayed federalization through lobbying. When the political tide turned, and it always does, it was personal for a lot of Congressmen and Senators and not just political any more.

So we've got U.S. Immigration come Nov. 28, and it's not going away. If the 'CW' jobs are permanent, as the Administration, the Chamber and the contract workers seem to think, they'd better find a solution under U.S. law.

Guess what? The only realistic solution I can see is legislation, probably to offer U.S. citizenship. The next Governor is going to have to deal with reality instead of continuing this wishful thinking and foot-dragging. There is a five-year window of opportunity, though it is going to get smaller every year.

But what if the non-residents get citizenship and decide to go elsewhere? Well, I think the workers and Taotao Tano could live with that. They're really in this together, though they might not see that. Some workers would stay, no matter what. They've put down roots. Others would stay if they're given a little incentive. Here's a hint: offer more that the minimum wage. Think about it; there's still time. Tick, tick.

* Or do we? Hafa Adai Hotel lays off workers blares a headline in today's Marianas Variety. Several hotels have had some workers on 32 hour weeks for at least a couple of years now.

Eve of distraction

Jay Solly seems to know a bit about marketing.

His shamelessly self-promoting CNMI gubernatorial 'poll' landed him on the front page of the Friday Marianas Variety and the election-day Saipan Tribune.

Not bad for a young guy who seems to be looking for a job. Unintended consequences kick in, of course.

He reportedly used his 'significant other's' (gad I hate that term) phone to survey voters. Well, not hers exactly. According to the Tribune, it's a residential phone but it belongs to Bridge Capital LLC *. They fired her, "for improper use of company resources." A company whose unrelenting campaign for gambling on Saipan has been controversial doesn't need a pissed-off Governor.

And he was pissed, or at least his minions were. That's easy to understand. Who needs to get blind-sided the day before the election by a poll showing the incumbent is in third place? The obvious --and legitimate-- questions were asked: who is this guy and who does he work for?

So Solly

So they called Bridge Capital, who quickly cut their losses... and their payroll. Pressure from the Governor's Office? I have no idea, but there's no crying in Public Relations. It seems like a move they would make with or without pressure. But Jay and the SO (girlfriend) are victims now. Stay tuned. We need two jobs now.

Who does he work for? There's nothing obvious to go by. Personally I think he free-lanced this, but time will tell. Stay tuned. With due diligence, the Governor's people checked out Marianas Consulting on the internet, and only got marianasconsulting.com, evidently some consultants in Toronto. Nay, says Solly, it's marianasconsulting.biz, which is true enough. He bought that domain name on October 26, but it's not functioning yet. The Website Title is 404 Not Found. **

Haidee V. Eugenio writes that the Tribune got Solly's Press Release Friday. I suppose he was trying to maximize coverage in both papers. He puts a brave face on it, but I don't think this is the story he expected to read.

And the voters say

Solly claims that his methods are sound, but the numbers don't add up to me-- figuratively and literally. My "Pala-Pala Poll" shows the Governor ahead of Juan Guerrero, with more than 20 percent of the vote. I guess we'll know tonight.

I could comment on the poll's design if I knew more about it. I was looking for his Press Release or other information when I tried to track down the Marianas Consulting website. Big assumption here, but if they only called landlines they would get a skewed view of the population. A lot of people only have cell phones these days, particularly younger people. Also, in this political climate, I would expect some people to hold their cards pretty close when talking to an anonymous voice on the phone.

Survey questions have to be designed very carefully. For instance, 'Do you think the Commonwealth is headed in the wrong direction?' would be leading. 'In which direction is the Commonwealth headed?' with choices would get a better result.

Then again, at least he tried, and he's sure poked himself into the public eye.

* Mo' marketing: Bridge Capital got in its own public relations licks with the irrelevant "Since June this year, the company has donated nearly $25,000 to the CNMI community."

** The WHO IS pointed at http://www.marianasconsulting.biz instead of just http://marianasconsulting.biz There's a little more information at the site, but the Press Release he posted has less information than what was provided to the local papers. I got through once. The connection has 'timed out' every other time I tried.

Slouching towards federalization

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

It was probably inevitable: all of this apocalyptic talk about immigration made me think of Yeats' Second Coming. With the federal 'takeover' on Nov. 28 just three weeks after Saturday's election, Gov. Benigno R. Fitial continues to run against Washington. His opponents seem content to let it be BE on this subject, at least in the media.

Large businesses have consistently voiced their objections and are likely to comment on the Transitional (CW) Worker Regulations. But those regulations are likely to go into effect as scheduled, unless the Governor's lawyers can pull a rabbit out of their hat.

Unlikely allies

Now, some contract workers are having second thoughts. According to the Marianas Variety, many left a Department of Homeland Security 'forum' on the regulations "with unanswered questions and mounting uncertainty."

Apparently they're shocked that DHS is just following Public Law 110–229, and not adding any provisions. DHS does have the leeway to "phase in the U.S. federal immigration system in a manner that minimizes adverse economic and fiscal effects and maximizes the CNMI’s potential for future economic and business growth." They exercised that discretion in agreeing to add visa waivers for Chinese and Russians.

So, with a specific showing of economic harm from the CW regs, who knows? Not likely, is it? District Director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services David Gulick is quoted as saying they haven’t determined yet how to reduce the numbers of guest workers in the CNMI.

But there is no doubt those numbers will be reduced. The bill and the regulations require that workers "who would not otherwise be eligible for admission" under applicable provisions of the Immigration and Naturalization Act find another status or leave the U.S. before Jan. 1, 2015.

What happens Nov. 28? Not the Rapture some doomsayers predict; guest workers will remain. Not the Workers' Paradise some starry-eyed optimists have predicted despite evidence to the contrary. In the short term, everything will continue as before. We'll just have a new set of friendly faces greeting us at ports of entry.

Velvet handcuffs

According to the Variety "Gulick’s main message to the migrants and their employers: CNMI-issued labor or umbrella permits are not legally recognized to allow one to reenter the commonwealth or resume work after leaving the islands for whatever reasons."

The golden umbrella becomes velvet handcuffs: USCIS won't hunt you down, but you can't leave and come back without having a status approved by them.

Time for another creative solution like the visa waiver, according to the Governor. "It doesn’t make sense for them to be restricting the travels of the workers," he says.

Well, actually it does. Anyone who is currently in the CNMI has been cleared by the local government, not the feds. It's no surprise, to me at least, that DHS wants to have investors, CW's and all other categories go through the visa process. To them, it's the same as entering for the first time.

That's the short-term. Down the road, well, how do you interpret the poem?

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

Advertising ague

There's a Google ad at the bottom of this page, you may have noticed. It would be more trouble than it's worth for me to actually deal with the pittance I could get as a commission, but I leave it there.

Think of it as a canary in my coal mine. Google's algorithms try to parse what's posted here for key words, guess who is reading it, then come up with advertising that will make your mouse finger twitch. Good luck with that: I don't know my next subject until I find it. It is somewhat useful to be reminded that I'm becoming obsessive about a subject, and hey, I don't want to feel like I'm getting free bandwidth from Google.

Non sequitor

Immigration seems to be on my mind these days; at least an immigration ad keeps popping up offering legal advice. Free legal advice. Sam Goldwyn is supposed to have said "A verbal contract isn't worth the paper it's written on." I haven't been able to trace the similar saw 'Free legal advice is worth what you paid for it', but I tend to agree. Listen, by all means, but don't sell your farm without more information.

Since this is written in the CNMI, you might jump to the conclusion that I'm talking about Howard Willens in the Governor's Office and Deanne Siemer at the Department of Labor. I'm not. Well, I am, but not specifically. I really don't want to jump into that turgid, turbid and torrid river of prose.

More advice is coming as this is written. A plethora of people are discussing DOL's Umbrella Permits at American Memorial Park. I'm confused about them, with a wait-and-see reaction similar to Saipan Writer.

Beautiful ugly pictures

All of that was just a meander in my stream of thought anyway, brought on by advertisements for Chinese chemical companies when I was tracking down these Chinese photographs. Those ads, and others from chemical companies, were very poor product placement by Google. (It always seems to be about China with that company, doesn't it?)

Lu Guang's powerful, disturbing photos brought to mind the cliche "a picture is worth a thousand words" (It's often called a Chinese proverb, but modern usage seems to be derived from an advertising slogan.) I read about parts per million of pollutants and pore over articles about their horrendous pollution, but you can almost smell and taste the chemical stew he portrays.

The subject isn't academic for people in the Mariana Islands. When we get our 'volcanic haze' warnings, it seems like it's usually a burp from Anatahan piggybacking on a noxious air current emigrating from Asia.

It's all about us

Follow the link to the photos (Please!) and you'll get a bonus: self-centered politicopaths, mostly from the U.S., arguing about socialism, communism and capitalism. Silly me, I thought pollution was caused by uncontrolled development, not ideology. They're crying 'poor me' instead of 'those poor people'.

That's another form of pollution.

Visa waivers approved, temporarily

The Pacific Daily News is reporting that a CNMI-only visa waiver for Chinese and Russian tourists will be approved after Nov. 28 "on a case-by-case basis".*

It might only be a breather, because the "parole" will only be available "During the period from Nov. 28, 2009 (the transition program effective date), until the date of publication of the final Guam-CNMI Visa Waiver Program (VWP) rule (or other date that the Secretary of Homeland Security may determine)."

Still, it's good news in the short term, and maybe we can separate the coming of federal immigration control from the coming election.

That's a pretty vain hope. Several politicians have said they are going to raise issues with Customs and Border Patrol officials who are here for an operational visit. Operational is the key word here; they're not policy makers. Here's the list printed by the Saipan Tribune:

The visiting federal officials are led by CBP Assistant Commissioner for the Office of Field Operations Thomas S. Winkowski, and CBP Assistant Commissioner for the Office of Information Technology Charles Armstrong.

Also visiting are David Morrell, executive director of the Office of Field Operations' Mission Support; Cheryl Peters, program manager of the Office of Field Operations; Richard Vigna, director of Field Operations in San Francisco; Bruce Murley, area port director in Honolulu, Hawaii; and Rocky Miner, port director in Guam.

Later in the day...
Pacific News Center has a short blurb, indifferently written, on the officials' visit to Guam:

The speaker (Judi Wonpat) says that the federalization of CNMI's immigration will require them to use some of Guam's US customs agents however it will be on a part time basis and shouldn't affect any of Guam's operations.

The speaker adds that they did not have an answer as to the viability of extending the visa-waiver program to China and Russia. They did however reassure the Speaker that they would be on track to implament the CNMI's federalization on Nov. 28th.

More...
PNC has also reprinted a Press Release (indifferently written) from Guam Congresswoman Madeleine Bordallo's office saying that the hearing on H.R. 3770 has been posponed until a later date. That bill proposes a one-year delay in implementing the Guam-CNMI visa waiver.

And...
Last, but certainly not least, PNC has the (decently written) reaction from Congressman Gregorio C. Sablan:

"I’ve been assured that all the necessary equipment to do the pre-screening and monitor visitor exits will be in place by November 28,” said Kilili. “I have been very concerned about the Department’s operational readiness, but I’m beginning to see some forward motion."

* I'm glad I stopped by Unheard No More this morning. I missed the PDN headline when I picked up the local papers this morning. The Department of Interior's announcement doesn't appear on their website yet; I'll try to link to it soon, particularly when PDN's pay-per-view time limit kicks in.

CNMI Immigration countdown

Rep. Gregorio C. Sablan's bill to delay federal immigration control for one year and Rep. Madelline Bordallo's similar bill to delay the Guam/CNMI Visa Waiver Program seem to have fallen into a cone of silence.

I've had problems with broken links to searches of the Library of Congress' Thomas database in the past and both bills are short, so I pasted Sablan's H.R. 3647 and Bordallo's H.R. 3770 here for easy reference.

Nov. 28 is only weeks away, and both bills have been referred to committee. "No news coverage" of H.R. 3647 or H.R. 3770, says opencongress.org. The Pacific News Service blurb I mentioned last week didn't include the bill number. The Marianas Variety ran a press release from Bordallo's office Wednesday, but it doesn't appear to be on their website.

Legislation that's not controversial doesn't sail through the House and Senate in six weeks, and these bills are bound to face opposition. I haven't seen this elsewhere, but an immigration attorney in Japan says "Legislative Hearing on the H.R. 3770 amendment is scheduled to take place on Thursday, October 22, 2009, at 10:00 a.m."

At this late date, I wonder how many people just want to get rid of the uncertainty.

Waiving the flags

Guam Congresswoman Madeleine Bordallo wants to put the Guam-CNMI Visa Waiver Program on hold for one year while letting the rest of PL 110-229 take effect.

"The bill would delay by one year the start of the authorized joint Guam-CNMI Visa Waiver Program, but would still allow the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to take control of immigration in the CNMI as of November 28," according to statement reported by the Pacific News Service.

The PNS blurb doesn't give a number for the proposed amendment to Public Law 110-229 and the subject isn't mentioned on her website.

"The bill is necessary to ensuring that we protect the economies of Guam and our region, both of whom depend on the visitor industry," she adds and that's pretty much the entire statement.

CNMI Congressman Gregorio C. Sablan has proposed that the entire law be postponed until Dec. 1, 2010.

Sunday, 3:30

From what I can find, the PNS snippet is still the only source on the internet.

It's not clear what benefit Guam would get from a delay, except that Indonesia, Vanuatu, Western Samoa and the Solomon Islands will be removed from the participating country list.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Embassy to Japan has a page on its website describing the waiver program.

The Guam - CNMI Visa Waiver Information Form CBP I-736 (pdf) and Guam-CNMI Visa Waiver Agreement with carriers CBP Form I-760 (pdf) are available online.