Jay Solly of Marianas Consulting took exception to my piece Eve of distraction. In the interest of fairness, here is the complete text of his latest Press Release. (I removed the email address, simply because I didn't want to subject him to the spam he would get if it was published on the internet.)
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: JAY SOLLY
November 19, 2009
Second Poll ‘Unnecessary’ In Light of CNMI’s Chilling Political Climate
Saipan—Upon inquiries from media outlets, Marianas Consulting announced today that no additional polling would be conducted in the CNMI leading up to the historic November 23rd gubernatorial run-off elections. The company made this decision in light of the CNMI Governor’s Office and the Covenant Party’s heightened and unparalleled energies expended the day before the November 7th General Election. Though the statistically sound poll disclosed its full methodology as thoroughly or even more so than the University of Guam’s poll published earlier that week, the Governor’s Covenant Party Chairman issued a specious press release in a classic case of “shoot the messenger” chiefly because their candidate was not prevailing. The three other candidates for Governor did not issue statements.
Further, the Governor’s Office openly engaged in eyebrow-raising back-and-forth with a private company and the account of events and depth of involvement leave more questions to be asked than were answered. Consequently, this company terminated an employee with a personal relationship to Marianas Consulting’s principal consultant the same day the poll was released. In media accounts it was acknowledged that they contacted the Governor’s Office to inform that the employee had been let go, a highly unusual action for what was a private and internal personnel matter. Even more curious, the Governor’s Covenant Party thought it appropriate to comment on this personnel issue, offering words of support for the supposed “hurt” caused, but in reality, adding insult to injury.
Principal Consultant, Jay Solly comments, “On a personal note, my family and I are grateful for the outpouring of support from the community. We love Saipan and the kindness and giving hearts exhibited. We look forward to staying and will continue working for the community. It is likely that there would have been no effort to silence, discredit, or intimidate if the numbers were in Covenant’s favor. Again, neither I, nor my company, was contracted by any campaign when this poll was conducted, but now I know with certainty for whom I will not work—the rank amateurism of the Covenant Party opposition research linking Marianas Consulting to an Ontario-based company that happens to share the name made me chuckle. Incidentally, I worked in Moscow in 2005, did they check with Vladimir Putin too?”
Marianas Consulting concedes that a run-off poll again employing random sampling in line with theories of probability would likely be informative and serve well the interests of the people, but as Mr. Solly adds, “even statistics with reported sampling error come under fire in this chilling political climate fostered to stifle dissent. This, coupled with the ‘spiral of silence’ effect—where voters are less likely to voice an opinion if they fear reprisal, job loss, or isolation from the existing political apparatus—make polling in the CNMI uniquely challenging.”
The CNMI-registered company iterates that the only polls that truly matter are election polls where the free exercise of choice is safeguarded.
About Marianas Consulting
Marianas Consulting is a strategy, government & public affairs consulting firm headquartered on the beautiful island of Saipan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, headed by Mr. Jay Solly. Jay has over 12 years of professional experience in political communications, public relations, marketing, and government arenas at the territory, state, and national level. Mr. Solly has advised, managed and worked on 26 campaigns in 14 years.
Showing posts with label poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label poll. Show all posts
Friday, November 20, 2009
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Eve of distraction
Jay Solly seems to know a bit about marketing.
His shamelessly self-promoting CNMI gubernatorial 'poll' landed him on the front page of the Friday Marianas Variety and the election-day Saipan Tribune.
Not bad for a young guy who seems to be looking for a job. Unintended consequences kick in, of course.
He reportedly used his 'significant other's' (gad I hate that term) phone to survey voters. Well, not hers exactly. According to the Tribune, it's a residential phone but it belongs to Bridge Capital LLC *. They fired her, "for improper use of company resources." A company whose unrelenting campaign for gambling on Saipan has been controversial doesn't need a pissed-off Governor.
And he was pissed, or at least his minions were. That's easy to understand. Who needs to get blind-sided the day before the election by a poll showing the incumbent is in third place? The obvious --and legitimate-- questions were asked: who is this guy and who does he work for?
So Solly
So they called Bridge Capital, who quickly cut their losses... and their payroll. Pressure from the Governor's Office? I have no idea, but there's no crying in Public Relations. It seems like a move they would make with or without pressure. But Jay and the SO (girlfriend) are victims now. Stay tuned. We need two jobs now.
Who does he work for? There's nothing obvious to go by. Personally I think he free-lanced this, but time will tell. Stay tuned. With due diligence, the Governor's people checked out Marianas Consulting on the internet, and only got marianasconsulting.com, evidently some consultants in Toronto. Nay, says Solly, it's marianasconsulting.biz, which is true enough. He bought that domain name on October 26, but it's not functioning yet. The Website Title is 404 Not Found. **
Haidee V. Eugenio writes that the Tribune got Solly's Press Release Friday. I suppose he was trying to maximize coverage in both papers. He puts a brave face on it, but I don't think this is the story he expected to read.
And the voters say
Solly claims that his methods are sound, but the numbers don't add up to me-- figuratively and literally. My "Pala-Pala Poll" shows the Governor ahead of Juan Guerrero, with more than 20 percent of the vote. I guess we'll know tonight.
I could comment on the poll's design if I knew more about it. I was looking for his Press Release or other information when I tried to track down the Marianas Consulting website. Big assumption here, but if they only called landlines they would get a skewed view of the population. A lot of people only have cell phones these days, particularly younger people. Also, in this political climate, I would expect some people to hold their cards pretty close when talking to an anonymous voice on the phone.
Survey questions have to be designed very carefully. For instance, 'Do you think the Commonwealth is headed in the wrong direction?' would be leading. 'In which direction is the Commonwealth headed?' with choices would get a better result.
Then again, at least he tried, and he's sure poked himself into the public eye.
* Mo' marketing: Bridge Capital got in its own public relations licks with the irrelevant "Since June this year, the company has donated nearly $25,000 to the CNMI community."
** The WHO IS pointed at http://www.marianasconsulting.biz instead of just http://marianasconsulting.biz There's a little more information at the site, but the Press Release he posted has less information than what was provided to the local papers. I got through once. The connection has 'timed out' every other time I tried.
His shamelessly self-promoting CNMI gubernatorial 'poll' landed him on the front page of the Friday Marianas Variety and the election-day Saipan Tribune.
Not bad for a young guy who seems to be looking for a job. Unintended consequences kick in, of course.
He reportedly used his 'significant other's' (gad I hate that term) phone to survey voters. Well, not hers exactly. According to the Tribune, it's a residential phone but it belongs to Bridge Capital LLC *. They fired her, "for improper use of company resources." A company whose unrelenting campaign for gambling on Saipan has been controversial doesn't need a pissed-off Governor.
And he was pissed, or at least his minions were. That's easy to understand. Who needs to get blind-sided the day before the election by a poll showing the incumbent is in third place? The obvious --and legitimate-- questions were asked: who is this guy and who does he work for?
So Solly
So they called Bridge Capital, who quickly cut their losses... and their payroll. Pressure from the Governor's Office? I have no idea, but there's no crying in Public Relations. It seems like a move they would make with or without pressure. But Jay and the SO (girlfriend) are victims now. Stay tuned. We need two jobs now.
Who does he work for? There's nothing obvious to go by. Personally I think he free-lanced this, but time will tell. Stay tuned. With due diligence, the Governor's people checked out Marianas Consulting on the internet, and only got marianasconsulting.com, evidently some consultants in Toronto. Nay, says Solly, it's marianasconsulting.biz, which is true enough. He bought that domain name on October 26, but it's not functioning yet. The Website Title is 404 Not Found. **
Haidee V. Eugenio writes that the Tribune got Solly's Press Release Friday. I suppose he was trying to maximize coverage in both papers. He puts a brave face on it, but I don't think this is the story he expected to read.
And the voters say
Solly claims that his methods are sound, but the numbers don't add up to me-- figuratively and literally. My "Pala-Pala Poll" shows the Governor ahead of Juan Guerrero, with more than 20 percent of the vote. I guess we'll know tonight.
I could comment on the poll's design if I knew more about it. I was looking for his Press Release or other information when I tried to track down the Marianas Consulting website. Big assumption here, but if they only called landlines they would get a skewed view of the population. A lot of people only have cell phones these days, particularly younger people. Also, in this political climate, I would expect some people to hold their cards pretty close when talking to an anonymous voice on the phone.
Survey questions have to be designed very carefully. For instance, 'Do you think the Commonwealth is headed in the wrong direction?' would be leading. 'In which direction is the Commonwealth headed?' with choices would get a better result.
Then again, at least he tried, and he's sure poked himself into the public eye.
* Mo' marketing: Bridge Capital got in its own public relations licks with the irrelevant "Since June this year, the company has donated nearly $25,000 to the CNMI community."
** The WHO IS pointed at http://www.marianasconsulting.biz instead of just http://marianasconsulting.biz There's a little more information at the site, but the Press Release he posted has less information than what was provided to the local papers. I got through once. The connection has 'timed out' every other time I tried.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Pizza pie charts
Food for thought: Domino's Pizza has its own poll when you order online. Has this gone too far? Are pollsters our new shamen?With a few quibbles, it's close to most of the polls I've seen. Pollster.com had a little fun with this.
Who gets the all-important Philly Cheese Steak vote? Barack Obama and John McCain: "You got three weeks."
Friday, September 19, 2008
Don't bore me with facts
I've been mildly supportive of the proposed Marine Monument surrounding the northern Northern Mariana Islands; thinking it was more appropriate for people like David Sablan, Ike Cabrera, Agnes McPhetres and Karl Reyes to comment. I don't want opponents like Gourley and Joyner to muddy the waters by twisting it into 'outsiders telling us what to do'. After all, I've only been here for 25 years.
Still, I was surprised when I was polled about my opinion. It was obviously a survey of attitudes toward the monument-- and toward the military's presence in the Marianas-- but in no way was it a "sales job thinly disguised as a “phone survey” with Saipan residents as the target." I don't know whether Stanley Torres actually participated in the telephone survey, but I totally disagree with his assertion that "By using leading questions, ambiguous questions, and questions skillfully designed to hype their proposal they want to infiltrate every home on Saipan and try to sell their fairytale version of what this Bush Monument will mean to the children of the Marianas."
His letter sounds like a pre-emptive strike to discount the results if they don't favor his side. Not satisfied, he quickly slips into active paranoia: "There are favors being traded at very high levels and huge sums are at stake in this takeover bid." Whew, take a deep breath. Who is going to gain huge sums from a marine monument?
For myself, the questions clarified how important the issue is to me: not a deal-breaker, but certainly something I'll consider when I vote. Then again, I guess he was talking about me when he earlier wrote that "It’s not their ‘public land’ that would be given away should this [marine monument] be enforced by [President] Bush." Oh, wait, the 'public land' is the islands that are already protected by the CNMI Constitution. I guess the monument would be in the surrounding waters so that nasty federal government will be grabbing control... from themselves.
"How dumb do they think we are?" he asks. Let me rephrase that: how dumb do you think we are?
No worry, Representative Torres, I supported you for years because you were opposed, albeit ineffectively, to a lot of the CNMI government's mis-steps. That stopped a couple of years ago because of your increasingly vitriolic personal attacks on people you disagree with. I take it very personally that you are continually setting up 'statesiders' and 'mainlanders' as bogeymen.
Still, I was surprised when I was polled about my opinion. It was obviously a survey of attitudes toward the monument-- and toward the military's presence in the Marianas-- but in no way was it a "sales job thinly disguised as a “phone survey” with Saipan residents as the target." I don't know whether Stanley Torres actually participated in the telephone survey, but I totally disagree with his assertion that "By using leading questions, ambiguous questions, and questions skillfully designed to hype their proposal they want to infiltrate every home on Saipan and try to sell their fairytale version of what this Bush Monument will mean to the children of the Marianas."
His letter sounds like a pre-emptive strike to discount the results if they don't favor his side. Not satisfied, he quickly slips into active paranoia: "There are favors being traded at very high levels and huge sums are at stake in this takeover bid." Whew, take a deep breath. Who is going to gain huge sums from a marine monument?
For myself, the questions clarified how important the issue is to me: not a deal-breaker, but certainly something I'll consider when I vote. Then again, I guess he was talking about me when he earlier wrote that "It’s not their ‘public land’ that would be given away should this [marine monument] be enforced by [President] Bush." Oh, wait, the 'public land' is the islands that are already protected by the CNMI Constitution. I guess the monument would be in the surrounding waters so that nasty federal government will be grabbing control... from themselves.
"How dumb do they think we are?" he asks. Let me rephrase that: how dumb do you think we are?
No worry, Representative Torres, I supported you for years because you were opposed, albeit ineffectively, to a lot of the CNMI government's mis-steps. That stopped a couple of years ago because of your increasingly vitriolic personal attacks on people you disagree with. I take it very personally that you are continually setting up 'statesiders' and 'mainlanders' as bogeymen.
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