tsu tsu tsunami

If somebody happens by this idling site, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has a warning out for the Northern Marianas.

Their estimate is about 8:53 Zulu -- about 6:53 this evening. They say its magnitude was 7.9 with no reports of damage or waves... But that's bulletin one.

From Japan I'm hearing 8.8 with large waves and major damage. Check out Earthquake-Report.com. They claim it's the largest quake ever recorded in Japan.

Mo later.

Excerpted from bulletin #9:

SAIPAN US 15.2N 145.7E 0916Z 0.65M / 2.1FT 30MIN

So it looks like 2.1 feet at 7:16 pm

I wonder where the gauge is...

Holes in the umbrella

Okay, Over 80 percent of guest workers to get umbrella permit, according to the Marianas Variety.

How about 'almost 20 percent of guest workers won't get umbrella permits', instead? That's a lot of slippage.

Some of those presently in the system may have already departed the Commonwealth, Deanne Siemer is supposed to have explained to the reporter. Well, that certainly makes me feel better. They're in control.

Somebody is. Siemer is described as "Labor’s part-time hearing officer" in this story; it's usually "volunteer legal adviser". Why is this part-time volunteer so often the 'spokesperson'? (It's not the newspapers' fault. Has anyone seen her business card to clear this up?)

It bothers me that the percentage is that high. Are one-in-five guest workers here illegally? Are they going to try to hang on illegally for a few more years? Maybe that many people have given up on trying to find work and just want to go home. And, yes, I'm sure some have already left.

Urban legend visas

Or maybe they're the people Jaime R. Vergara was talking about in his opinion piece Stragglers under the Commonwealth umbrella. It's a must-read for anyone in denial about the very large group of exploited workers.

Yes, they're "incredibly gullible", he says, "a docile population of foreigners exploited by their own kind, oblivious of any political rights, and reliant on fortune tellers and fast-buck schemes..."

They're about to pay for their mistakes, or pay later if they go back underground for awhile. A lucky few might find an advocate and take their exploiters down with them. The people who gamed the system will move on, looking for another scam. The people who created the system will try to rewrite history: 'Not Our Fault.'

I've still been hearing about 'tourist' and 'sponsor' schemes this year. It hasn't stopped. Vergara says "I saw copies of identical pleadings for a waiver addressed to no less than Labor’s celebrated volunteer asking that the waiver be granted to an overstaying tourist and a jobless consort so that they may be allowed time to seek other partners, apply for an Immediate Relative status, and qualify for the umbrella permit!"

According to Vergara, "Shanty dwellings with their ubiquitous satellite dishes house many aliens who expect the feds to start handing out urban legend visas come December." Sad, but I have to agree with him.

I was pulling up to YCO Hardware this morning and saw a flyer for a Black Friday Sale on Nov. 27. Wow, I thought, they really don't like the feds. Oops, the day after Thanksgiving is supposed to be the start of the Christmas shopping season. My bad, I hadn't seen anybody use it out here

Advertising ague

There's a Google ad at the bottom of this page, you may have noticed. It would be more trouble than it's worth for me to actually deal with the pittance I could get as a commission, but I leave it there.

Think of it as a canary in my coal mine. Google's algorithms try to parse what's posted here for key words, guess who is reading it, then come up with advertising that will make your mouse finger twitch. Good luck with that: I don't know my next subject until I find it. It is somewhat useful to be reminded that I'm becoming obsessive about a subject, and hey, I don't want to feel like I'm getting free bandwidth from Google.

Non sequitor

Immigration seems to be on my mind these days; at least an immigration ad keeps popping up offering legal advice. Free legal advice. Sam Goldwyn is supposed to have said "A verbal contract isn't worth the paper it's written on." I haven't been able to trace the similar saw 'Free legal advice is worth what you paid for it', but I tend to agree. Listen, by all means, but don't sell your farm without more information.

Since this is written in the CNMI, you might jump to the conclusion that I'm talking about Howard Willens in the Governor's Office and Deanne Siemer at the Department of Labor. I'm not. Well, I am, but not specifically. I really don't want to jump into that turgid, turbid and torrid river of prose.

More advice is coming as this is written. A plethora of people are discussing DOL's Umbrella Permits at American Memorial Park. I'm confused about them, with a wait-and-see reaction similar to Saipan Writer.

Beautiful ugly pictures

All of that was just a meander in my stream of thought anyway, brought on by advertisements for Chinese chemical companies when I was tracking down these Chinese photographs. Those ads, and others from chemical companies, were very poor product placement by Google. (It always seems to be about China with that company, doesn't it?)

Lu Guang's powerful, disturbing photos brought to mind the cliche "a picture is worth a thousand words" (It's often called a Chinese proverb, but modern usage seems to be derived from an advertising slogan.) I read about parts per million of pollutants and pore over articles about their horrendous pollution, but you can almost smell and taste the chemical stew he portrays.

The subject isn't academic for people in the Mariana Islands. When we get our 'volcanic haze' warnings, it seems like it's usually a burp from Anatahan piggybacking on a noxious air current emigrating from Asia.

It's all about us

Follow the link to the photos (Please!) and you'll get a bonus: self-centered politicopaths, mostly from the U.S., arguing about socialism, communism and capitalism. Silly me, I thought pollution was caused by uncontrolled development, not ideology. They're crying 'poor me' instead of 'those poor people'.

That's another form of pollution.

Tsunami hits American Samoa

I've gotten some reports of a five-foot tsunami hitting Pago Pago, American Samoa.

The warning for the Northern Marianas has been cancelled by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. Makes you feel better, doesn't it?

Actually, that's so far south and so far away it's no big thing-- to us.

Locally, though, the U.S. Geologic Survey (link expired) reported a magnitude 8.0 quake at about 3:48 am our time, and if you look at the widget on the bottom left of this page you can see there are a lot of aftershocks greater than 5.0.

I'm off to look for news stories, but the USGS has a nifty page (link expired) where people can report: it sounds like the quake itself was felt as "moderate" in AS.

More: According to Bloomberg.com: Pacific Tsunami Kills at Least Five in Samoa Region After Quake. There are a lot of stories now if you Google it.

Waiving the flags?

The Department of Homeland Security hates tourists. That's the reality we face when we read (Gov. Benigno R.) Fitial to continue pressing for China, Russia visa waivers (Saipan Tribune)

The Christian Science Monitor tells us that Tourism rises globally, but not to U.S. The article notes that "In fact, the annual number of foreign visitors to the US is about 2 million lower than in 2000, leading travel-industry experts to figure that from 2000 to 2007, the US economy took a hit of about $150 billion." Security trumps tourism.

The article quotes Gary Shapiro, president of the Consumer Electronics Association about the reasons there are far fewer foreign visitors to trade shows:

On a recent trip to China, Mr. Shapiro met the owner of a chain of 1,200 electronics stores who said he'd love to visit the Las Vegas show – but can't get a visa. While Shapiro may not know why that particular visa request was denied, he does know about the process a Chinese businessperson, tourist, or student has to go through to get a visa.

As he describes it, the applicant must first get to the US Embassy or a city with a US consulate, wait in what can be a long line, and pay a $100 application fee, giving a full accounting of all financial assets. The applicant must then return to the embassy or consulate for a two-minute interview that results in approval for a visa or rejection.

Foreign students face a similar problem. That's probably going to be the next local headline when the regulations are finalized.

There's certainly a connection to the Marines moving to Guam, with some spillover expected to the Northern Marianas. China and Russia are hardly hotbeds of terrorism, though some Chechens have been among the 'foreign fighters' in Iraq and Afghanistan. Military security, visa fraud and other criminal activity are more likely to be the "security concerns" cited in the proposed regulations.

As I so persuasively argued in Immigrate Expectations, the CNMI is likely to get lost in national immigration issues. From recent discussions on ILW.COM, it appears that Comprehensive Immigration Reform legislation is very likely early in the next U.S. Congress. Any exceptions for Guam and the CNMI would be seen as precedents and it's hard to see bureaucrats sticking their necks out in that political climate.

Maybe the Governor can bring it up if he meets President-elect Barack Obama while attending the inauguration.

Okay, my tongue is firmly in cheek on that one.

Defending Sarah Palin

I'm over my obsession with the Presidential election, but the media just won't let it go. It took Sarah Palin to make me care.

Go figure. On a personal level, her voice came out at a pitch that jangled my blackboard-scratch aural pain center. How much did I dislike her as a candidate? Let me count the ways.

That's all irrelevant; she's got my sympathy. It's not surprising that the worst of the post-election attacks came out on FOX news. Sleazy comments about her thinking Africa was a country* and not knowing the countries in the NAFTA treaty. Anonymous attacks.

That's my problem with FOX: not the political views, but the tabloidy rumors and innuendo it deals in to sell them. I've read conservative commentators for years, even added a cable company mainly to watch Rush Limbaugh at happy hour. That was years ago, before he took himself seriously and, scarily, others began taking him seriously.

It sells. They know that, and so do their competitors. Though they pretend to loathe that proud part of American journalism, they'll pick it up in a heartbeat if they're losing market share.

Who's your Uncle? Sam or Tom

For a moment, Shepherd Smith seemed to be auditioning for a job at another network with his "Joe The Plumber" interview on a Death to Israel remark. I guess not, it's the soundbite, stupid. He followed by highlighting Ralph Nader's loony remark about Barack Obama being an Uncle Tom. Ralph says he's just asking the question. Right, and why should we take you seriously? Did you ask yourself that question, Shepherd?

Mo' maps

The link to the graphic above was emailed by my brother. Yes, I'm tired of this stuff, but it caught me again. What if we map votes with a cartogram weighting population into the election results? From Mark Newman, he's got the same stuff by county and with other interesting manipulations.

* As a group, Americans are abysmally ignorant of geography. There have been dozens of studies proving this obvious fact. Just to pick a group, I'd like to see how many of the 435 U.S. Congressmen could pick out a country in an unlabeled map. How would they do identifying the majority of states? Finding Saipan or the Northern Marianas?

Throw off your Cheneys

Just when you thought it was safe to go near the Marine Monument (cue Jaws theme)

Barack Obama supporters may have thought they'd seen the last of Vice President Dick Cheney. Not so fast. According to an article in The Washington Post (reprinted in today's Saipan Tribune), Cheney is concerned about fishing and energy exploration around the northernmost islands of the Northern Marianas.

First Lady Laura Bush reportedly supports the proposed Marine Monument. According to the Post:

Claudia McMurray, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for oceans, environment and science, said the administration will be "working up until the last week" of Bush's term on the initiatives.

"While it would take a significant amount of work, we haven't ruled it out," she said. "We feel fairly confident, scientifically, there are so many unique species in that area, from that standpoint, we think it's important to wall off as much as we can."

It's not Obama time yet.

Saipan's turn at the table

Guam Greyhound lost its casino gaming initiative. Again.

Expect a Saipan casino initiative to pop up on next year's ballot. Again.

It will be a new, improved, can't-miss version of course. They always are. Still, the Pacific Daily News forum will save both sides a lot of time in putting their arguments together. It ran from April through Tuesday's election.

Guam voters gave Proposition A a thumbs-down by almost two-to-one. The Saipan Casino Act lost by almost the same margin. But, as Stevie Forbert said "You Cannot Win If You Do Not Play".

I'd give odds on this-- if it was legal to bet on it here.

By the way

It looks like Northern Marianas voters will be having an election every year for the forseeable future. It's too bad the Washington Delegate election can't be aligned with Commonwealth elections to save a few bucks.

James Baldwin says they've given up on initiatives, according to the Pacific Daily News. I'd still make my bet.

Follow the money

While burnishing her foreign policy credentials by traveling to Vienna Ohio, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin proposed putting the government's checkbook online.

A bold move, Governor. Will that be something like USASpending.gov? You know, "Google for Government", the Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act of 2006 sponsored by Senators Tom Coburn, Barack Obama, Tom Carper and... John McCain. Or maybe S.3077, the Strengthening Transparency and Accountability in Federal Spending Act of 2008, sponsored by Barack Obama with co-sponsors Thomas Carper, Thomas Coburn and... John McCain.

To be fair, I didn't know the site has been up-and-running since December either. Then again, I'm not looking to preside over the U.S. Senate come January. It's definitely not a wedge issue between the candidates.

What's it to you?

Naturally, now that I know it's there, curiosity led me to looking up the Northern Marianas.

It's obviously a work in progress: there's no 2007 data on food stamps, for instance. If the 2005 and 2006 figures are any indication, 2007 should eventually show about $127 million. (It appears about $4.5 million in California assistance was mistakenly listed under the CNMI, but that's probably due to growing pains of a new database.) Chunks of disaster and FAA money seem to account for much of the jump in 2004.

Still, $878 million from fiscal years 2000-2008 is a goodly chunk of change. I've been playing with the site for almost two hours, and I'm still trying to figure out the different ways it can be used.

Barack to the future

I'm no gawping groupy, but I signed up with Barack Obama so I could be one of the million or so close friends to hear first about his choice for Vice President *.

I've actually been impressed by his organizational skills; putting together the operation that took out the Clinton machine is quite an accomplishment. You always wonder if a legislator knows how to administer. There's a reason Senators usually don't get elected President.

He certainly knows how to organize on the internets. It looks like I'll be getting an email a day. And why not? As soon as I finish this post I'm going to see about raising McCain.

My first offer was to host a Convention Watch Party. That's certainly grassroots. I looked around, evidently nobody's doing it in this area. Me? I'm just watching the watchers.

Let's see, local my.barackobama.com groups? Aha, Northern Marianas for Obama is making a difference together. Hmm, the group administrator is some guy in Hong Kong who spent about three years on Saipan. Only one of the 17 members seems to actually live here. (See for yourself, I'm not telling. You may have to register at some point. Don't worry, no purchase necessary.)

* Personally, I think Virginia Sen. Jim Webb fills in all of the blanks on Obama's resume', but what do I know?

Natural Resources (Oh, yeah, the CNMI too)

S.2739 was signed, by Pres. George Bush. Hello U.S. immigration control. No time to check for his comments yet. Later

It's later

I should have left it at that. The White House press release:

On Thursday, May 8, 2008, the President signed into law:

S. 2739, the "Consolidated Natural Resources Act of 2008," which designates the 106,000-acre Wild Sky Wilderness in Washington State; designates three new National Heritage Areas; expands several national parks; authorizes funding for specified water projects; modifies two existing energy programs; applies U.S. immigration law to the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands; and grants the Commonwealth a non-voting delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives.

That's it. No additional comment. The only news report seemed to come from the Associated Press. The same story or an abbreviated version was in a dozen papers or television stations I checked. That includes papers who have done investigative pieces on Saipan and the Marianas like the New York Times and the Washington Post. The Wall Street Journal had nothing.

Chinese investors

But the search wasn't a total loss. I ran across this story from Radio Australia. Amazing, some Chinese investors are looking for business-as-usual at this late date:

Luo Xiadong, director of the Chinese Economic Development Association, says some investors from mainland China want to do business in the Northern Marianas.

But he says they are holding off their plans pending the move to federalise the islands' immigration system.....

He says the investors want to bring in more Chinese workers to the islands.

Canned tuna

Pew, something smells. No, I'm not talking about the Pew Charitable Trusts, I'm talking about the opposition to the Marine Monument proposed for the waters around the Northern Islands of Asuncion, Maug and Uracas.

Now Gov. Benigno R. Fitial has joined the fray, asking President Bush to reject the proposal (Ahem, I think he means if a proposal is submitted). Hands down. No discussion necessary.

According to the Saipan Tribune “The governor argued that the Commonwealth is looking at fishery as an economic growth engine to replace the declining garment and tourism industries.”

I guess I missed that meeting, but I'm sure there will be public discussion. Later. Maybe that's why he refused to even meet with Pew, reportedly giving them five minutes notice: 'I've got visitors', or something like that. Kind of rude, but that's just me.

“We rely on fishing as a source of food and jobs,” Fitial wrote. True enough, but from those islands? That's why I've been hoarding my two cents worth about the proposal; I've been waiting for local fishermen to state their case. On the face of it, that's too far north and too expensive to fish, but I could be wrong.

Large scale commercial fishing? Maybe, I don't know. What's up there? Sorry, I haven't caught Angelo Villagomez' road show, but I've heard Pew doesn't have much information yet. I can't afford to hire John Gourley to give me his estimates.

I'm not opposed to fishing (I love canned tuna, and I'm too old to get pregnant), but I don't see any local economic benefit. No local fees, because fishing in those waters is controlled by the Federal Government. That kind of undercuts the anti-federalization argument, doesn't it?

Luen Thai, the largest company with local connections I'm aware of, does its trans-shipping out of Guam. No jobs for us there. Other companies tried, and failed, on Tinian years ago.

Back to the future

Maybe the plan involves canneries. Sorry, those factory ships sail off to China or Thailand*. Because of cheap labor. That industry is hurting on American Samoa, and their “Special Industry Wage” is a big reason they joined us in being blessed by federal Minimum Wage legislation.

Of course Saipan has plenty of power and water for canneries, but the nineties are over. The days of imported minimum wage labor are over.

So where are these jobs coming from?

Willam McCue's catch-and-release argument is more nonsense. Those 100 jobs he invented are a pipe dream. Again, it's too far north. Maybe the diesel fumes have gotten to him.

I've seen personal attacks on Pew and Angelo, but precious little solid argument. The whole 'federalization' thing is a (pardon me) red herring, sheer demagoguery meant to shut down all critical thinking. 'Outsiders' in the federal government are making those decisions now. The submerged land issue was fought, and lost. It's time to get out of the nineties and quit wasting money on more litigation.

Any agreement on the monument would be negotiated between the U.S. and the CNMI. It's nonsense, and more demagoguery, to say Pew is going to decide anything for us.

So where's all of this local opposition I keep reading about? The Letters to the Editor have been overwhelmingly supportive. And no, Mr. Gourley, four letters do not count as four people.


* I've read that Norwegian cod are shipped to China and then re-exported to Norway.


NB: Saipan Writer had a similar reaction to the letter. More anger and less sarcasm in Please Make It Stop

Wage pages

The U.S. Department of Labor finally got around to posting its report on the effect of the minimum wage increase on the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands and American Samoa.

I'm not sure when they released it, but it's been on my list of Things to Follow-up since I first read the draft.

I thought the report was basically worthless because it wasn't based on facts, but there was language on page four that gave me hope:

This report is comprised of three subsequent sections. Section Two includes: (a) a summary of the economic situation of American Samoa prior to the initial scheduled minimum wage increase; (b) a discussion of possible impacts observed since the implementation of the initial fifty-centincrease in the minimum wages since July 24, 2007 in American Samoa; and (c) a discussion of projections of possible future impacts. Section Three comprises a similar discussion regarding the CNMI. Section Four presents concluding observations regarding data needs to support future investigations of the impact of minimum wage increases affecting the subject erritories.

But there was no Section IV.

Okay, surely the most important--maybe the only important-- part would be completed in the final version. Nope, the sentence I bolded was dropped.

What's going on? I remember stories (thought I bookmarked, sorry) saying the U.S. Congress wanted more information, a better study. Also on page four (emphasis added again):

It was not feasible to conduct field investigations in connection with this study. Had there been time and resources to conduct survey data collection in the field, travel by the research team to the islands could have been useful. However, meaningful field observations would have required data collection from both employers and households over many successive months in order to discern effects of the initial and subsequently scheduled minimum wage increases. In addition, a systematic data collection effort would have required approval of a survey under the terms of the Paperwork Reduction Act. Given the short reporting timeframe, design and implementation of field surveys were not practical.

Just so we get this straight: they couldn't, or wouldn't, even travel to the islands or do surveys. But they did interview 26 people by telephone and email. They won't tell the Congress how they're going to do it better.

If I was in my cynical/paranoid mode... but I'm not, so I'll let it lie for now

Oh, the map. It's from DOL, showing states/jurisdictions that have laws above the minimum, below the minimum and no laws. What's wrong with this picture?

Minimum wage retort

Want to read a good joke? Try downloading U.S. Labor's minimum wage report on American Samoa and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas. Don't take my word for it: check it out for yourself.

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Still with me?

Whether you're for it or against it, this product is lame. The two main points from the summary: "1. Short Time Frame. The reporting time-frame specified in the legislation – no later than 8 months from the date of enactment (May 25, 2007) – did not provide sufficient time to observe actual effects of the minimum wage increases"... and "2. Lack of timely labor market data ...The lack of such data for American Samoa and the CNMI significantly impairs efforts to measure or to project the impacts of scheduled minimum wage increases for these territories. It was not feasible to conduct field investigations in connection with this study."

Minimize the minimum (Panglossolia)

If you're agin raising the minimum wage you read "With both of its major industries declining simultaneously, the CNMI economy is in overall decline, and its current economic situation makes it especially vulnerable to additional shocks. While data are not available to precisely quantify the impact of the recent and scheduled future increases in the minimum wage, it seems likely that the current economic decline may be made worse. General experience in the U.S. and elsewhere has shown that potential adverse employment effects of minimum wage increases can be masked or offset to some degree by an expanding economy that is generating net employment growth. No such offsets can be expected in a declining economy."

Stay the course (Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead)

If you're fer a higher minimum you find this nugget tucked away in the back of the report: "Some recent U.S. research regarding the effects of minimum wage increases suggests some positive employment effects when increases are associated with labor markets characterized by a degree of monopsony power." Dictionaried, monopsony means "A market situation in which the product or service of several sellers is sought by only one buyer."

Don't confuse me with the facts

Strangely, the Saipan Tribune chickened a little. You'd almost think they had a vested interest in a low minimum. My buddy Dick Pierce, the governor's office and the Chamber of Commerce each get a day to wring their hands. Nobody is asked to express another point of view. Huh. I guess the 'majority' opposes the minimum wage as part of that federalization bundle.

Monday's article included this gem "Increasing the CNMI wage to $7.25 an hour, the report said, is comparable to raising the U.S. minimum wage to $16.50 an hour." Not exactly. The report said "The scheduled increase in the minimum wage to $7.25 (by 2015) will likely affect at least 75 percent of wage and salary workers in CNMI. By comparison, in order to directly affect 75 percent of U.S. hourly workers, the minimum wage would need to be raised to $16.50, the 75th percentile mark for wage and salary workers who are paid hourly rates." Lies, damn lies and statistics, the man said.

Tell me what I think

So who can we believe? Try yourself. What did you think about the minimum wage before this shelf-filler came out?

Or, heh, me. I think the jury's still out. I've maintained for years that a higher minimum wage in the CNMI would be great for small businesses because the majority of people would have more disposable income. Unfortunately, higher energy costs have sucked up the loose change from the cushions so we may never know.

There are already too many quotes, but I'll add one last tidbit from the report: "In 1980, the CNMI per capita income of $3,298 was 32.5 percent of U.S. per capita income of $10,134, and in 2000, the CNMI per capita income of $9,151 was 30.7 percent of U.S. per capita income of $29,855.33." It's pretty obvious that the old model wasn't getting us to a U.S. standard of living.

Fifty cents this year? Yeah, maybe, probably. Then how about a real study when there are results to analyze? I'll bet they've already shelved this treewaster and forgotten about the subject.