Nauru's nightmare

I've always felt sorry for Nauruans. Exploited by colonial powers that turned much of their island into a moonscape, they became independent and completed the job. Income from their phosphate deposits went into a series of increasingly ill-advised investments and now they can't afford their socialist paradise.

And you thought we had it bad. The hare-brained schemes we sometimes get in the CNMI are nothing compared to Nauru. Harboring refugees for cash, money-laundering for the Russian mafia, just give them an idea.

For instance, what does Nauru have in common with Russia, Nicaragua and Venezuela?

This week, it became the fourth country to recognize the breakaway Georgian enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

"It has no potential, just to trade in independence," says Russian analyst Sergei Markedonov of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis in Moscow, "Independence is a commodity — people will trade it."

And trade they do. There are reports that Nauru is getting $50 million for the deal. In the past, they recognized the Republic of China, then shifted to the People's Republic for something like $130 million. Ah, but Air Nauru went broke, so they went back to Taiwan (Check the line on the bottom of the home page) to get its replacement, Our Airline, flying.

No criticism is meant here. If countries like Russia, the Chinas and Israel want to practice recognition by checkbook, why not join in.

Picture the island of Banaba in Kiribati. Got it? Pretty remote. Now go 300 kilometers west. There's nothing there but Nauru. No wonder so many birds 'dropped by', and no wonder they have to have their own airline.

Some 11,000 (or maybe 9,000) people ring the island in the fertile coastal area. Nauru sued Australia in 1989 and ended up with a settlement to recover the mined lands. I don't think the amount was made public, but that doesn't matter: it wasn't enough; the interior is a wasteland.

The coastal plains are threatened by rising sea levels, and Nauru estimates 40 percent of its marine biota are dead due to silting and runoff with high phosphate levels.

Did I mentioned unemployment estimated at 90 percent, with 95 percent of the employed working for the government? The highest diabetes rate in the world and one of the most obese populations; this country just can't catch a break.

The first photo is from Nauru's tourism website (Hey, they're really trying to develop), the second's less-flattering pinnacles are from the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program-- they have a climate station on Nauru.

Whose visa waiver?

Or, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Guam is looking forward to getting its share of Russian and Chinese tourists under the visa waiver program.

"Guam may be able to benefit from a similar program if the one in the CNMI proves successful, (Guam Delegate Madeleine) Bordallo and tourism officials have said," according to the Pacific Daily News.*

Uh, oh. Unfortunately for us, Guam's 'share' will probably be larger than ours. They've got the air connections and a lot more attractions. Hong Kong was just added to the list eligible for Guam waivers. It will be interesting to see how they do in that market.

Another uh, oh: "It will open up English language and educational tourism opportunities of longer duration, thereby expanding the mix and menu of teaching modules that have different time horizons," said Guam Visitors Bureau General Manager Gerry Perez.

Where have we heard this before?

Bordallo was lobbying Homeland Secretary Janet Napolitano for Chinese and Russian to have Guam included in the 'parole' that was eventually approved for the Commonwealth. According to the article, she's still at it.

That may give the CNMI a very small window to get our act together before Guam is competing for the same tourists. Ah, but we've got casinos.

Well, casino. One, and it's not doing that well. A lot of plans, a few silver shovels getting scratched up in 'groundbreakings'. Don't get me wrong. I hope they work out on Tinian. I have the same hopes for Rota. I hope Saipan doesn't fall for that one.

Meanwhile, Rota leaders appear to be having second thoughts: Small-scale casino pushed on Rota.

Umm, do you mean a poker palace?


* I'd appreciate it if one of my two loyal readers lets me know when this link disappears and the article disappears into the vending-machine archives.

Waiving the flags?

The Department of Homeland Security hates tourists. That's the reality we face when we read (Gov. Benigno R.) Fitial to continue pressing for China, Russia visa waivers (Saipan Tribune)

The Christian Science Monitor tells us that Tourism rises globally, but not to U.S. The article notes that "In fact, the annual number of foreign visitors to the US is about 2 million lower than in 2000, leading travel-industry experts to figure that from 2000 to 2007, the US economy took a hit of about $150 billion." Security trumps tourism.

The article quotes Gary Shapiro, president of the Consumer Electronics Association about the reasons there are far fewer foreign visitors to trade shows:

On a recent trip to China, Mr. Shapiro met the owner of a chain of 1,200 electronics stores who said he'd love to visit the Las Vegas show – but can't get a visa. While Shapiro may not know why that particular visa request was denied, he does know about the process a Chinese businessperson, tourist, or student has to go through to get a visa.

As he describes it, the applicant must first get to the US Embassy or a city with a US consulate, wait in what can be a long line, and pay a $100 application fee, giving a full accounting of all financial assets. The applicant must then return to the embassy or consulate for a two-minute interview that results in approval for a visa or rejection.

Foreign students face a similar problem. That's probably going to be the next local headline when the regulations are finalized.

There's certainly a connection to the Marines moving to Guam, with some spillover expected to the Northern Marianas. China and Russia are hardly hotbeds of terrorism, though some Chechens have been among the 'foreign fighters' in Iraq and Afghanistan. Military security, visa fraud and other criminal activity are more likely to be the "security concerns" cited in the proposed regulations.

As I so persuasively argued in Immigrate Expectations, the CNMI is likely to get lost in national immigration issues. From recent discussions on ILW.COM, it appears that Comprehensive Immigration Reform legislation is very likely early in the next U.S. Congress. Any exceptions for Guam and the CNMI would be seen as precedents and it's hard to see bureaucrats sticking their necks out in that political climate.

Maybe the Governor can bring it up if he meets President-elect Barack Obama while attending the inauguration.

Okay, my tongue is firmly in cheek on that one.

Melting the ice

I see that Benigno Sablan has been reappointed to the Western Pacific Fishery Management Council. I assume Marine Monument supporters wouldn't be pleased because members are nominated by the Governor, but I've liked Ben since he was my Congressman.

Really, I wouldn't even bring it up, except that the press release from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (This is the Saipan Tribune after all) states that "NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages the nation's coastal and marine resources." You might guess from my added emphasis that I consider that a boldface, um, overstatement. How about understanding and predicting the Arctic Icecap?

North by Northwest

The Northwest Passage is open for business. Dust off your history books and you'll recall that a passage to the Far East drove generations of early American exploration. Even Columbus was aiming for the "Indies".

So far, I've only run across an Australian who sailed West-to-East, but if it continues to open, and for a longer season, shippers are sure to follow. A beefed up oil tanker was tested before the decision was made to build the Alaska Pipeline.

The extent of sea-ice is approaching last year's record low. Global warming? Probably, maybe, but that's irrelevant in the near-term. The icecap has been shrinking for the 30 years we've had satellites to peep at it and for the last 10 years particularly.

We can argue about where the Highs and Lows park during summer and winds pushing the pack ice in the 'wrong' direction, even throw in global currents and post-ice-age isostatic recovery. We know that the 'new ice' from last year melts more easily and that open ocean absorbs more sunlight than ice, but we're ignorant puppies about events on this scale and our supercomputers will be happily humming for years. Climate change is about decades or centuries, not years.

Chill out

Why should I care way off in Saipan? Well aside from living near sea level and liking to think about ice when I'm sweltering in the dark, Russia has been pretty assertive lately.

There are bound to be disputes; Russia has tried to claim the North Pole and is building nuclear-powered icebreakers, Canada is still trying to assert control over their sea-lanes, and we're stumbling along with three aged icebreakers (one's for research and one's in the shop).

Yep, you got it: the icebreaker gap. It's not just military/political; ice-free doesn't mean, well, free of ice. Depending on who's defining, it means less than 15% ice. So ships can get stuck, they can get holed, they can sink. Big ships. Tankers. Enforcement and clean-up crews are going to have to function in that environment.

Also, submarine cousins from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are going to be increasingly likely to meet, and to invade each other's territory.

Bad timing

Sylvester Stallone is set to push Synergy Vodka's "Russian Ice" brand starting September 1.

I can't believe they decided to go ahead with this advertising campaign while Russian troops are still parked in Georgia-- and that "There is a bit of Russian in all of us" slogan has got to go. According to Reuters:

"The advertising campaign concept was based on the fact that the actor has Russian roots," Synergy said in a statement, referring to Stallone's great-grandmother, Rosa Rabinovich, from the Ukrainian town of Odessa.

Umm, the Ukraine is not part of Russia. In fact their President flew into Georgia to express solidarity. They're worried they might be next on the Bear's menu.

The contract's reportedly for a year. Maybe after that Stallone will drag Rambo out of retirement so he can defend Georgia on film.

Editorial cartoons

A picture's worth a thousand words department. Cartoonists tweaking us about Georgia:

Ed Stein

Pat Oliphant

Bill Schorr