Obama rasa

Everyone wants a crack at President Barack Obama: demonizers to tell him off, while acolytes would probably be happy just to touch a hem on his garments. Personally, I'm still trying to figure out who is and exactly what the hell he's up to.

Some think they will get their chance this March when he stops over in Guam. My term: I haven't seen anyone phrase it that way, but Guam's still a prime coaling station. Check the oil, kick the tires, stretch your legs and it's on the road again.

Oh, yeah; "he will speak with U.S. service members on the island," according to press secretary Robert Gibbs. Stalwart young men and women, clean cut (no t-shirt slogans and signs) and in the forefront where America's homeland security begins. This sounds like a script borrowed from the latter-day George Bush.

That's not meant to be as flippant and cynical as it sounds: it's what I'd do -- I could probably write the speech. The Guam activists and CNMI politicians looking for meetings and visits will very likely be disappointed. 'Bulwark' will be used once, 'defense' and 'security' several times. Japan will be mentioned, very diplomatically because of the new government's hardened stance on Marines in Okinawa.

It's been a cold winter in Washington figuratively and literally. Time to slide away from the domestic ruckus for a foreign policy War On Terror set-piece. "We're good guys," Indonesians will be told. (Like most of our Muslim allies, their draconian laws will be glossed -- though if anyone drops the word 'madrasa' into the comments I'll attempt to throttle them digitally) "WE are the good guys," he'll assure Australians... and we really wish you'd pony up some troops.

There will be pictures of shy, smiling students and Obama's kids will probably meet a koala. I predict... success.

Somewhere, I picked up the essentially useless nugget that, unlike airliners, Air Force One lands with enough fuel to get out of Dodge. They don't exactly keep the motor running, but that's one of many precautions. I'm sure that's part of the reason for the Guam stop, as is adjusting to different time zones. You don't want your President sounding incoherent due to jet lag.

Immigrant locator

It shouldn't make much difference in the CNMI and Guam but the Department of Homeland Security's Immigration and Customs Enforcement is planning on reforming its detention system.

The change that caught my eye was the proposed launch of an immigrant-detainee locator system in June. I've read countless horror stories of lawyers and family members who couldn't find detainees who disappeared into the system. Assistant secretary John T. Morton seems to have heard them also.

O'Keefe money

I'd read that the stone money brought from Palau to Yap by David Dean O'Keefe was worth less than 'traditional' money brought by canoe. The reason is obvious: he cheated.

In the same issue of azcentral.com as the immigration piece, we learn that something similar is happening in the case of James O'Keefe. Now conservatives are keeping their distance from the stalwart who lured ACORN into promoting prostitution. His latest escapade allegedly involved trying to tap the phones of Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu.

"The truth shall set me free," he is quoted as twittering. But not pay the bail, I'd add. Whatever happens, he's done a public service. The right was energized by his expose, while politicians on the left were handed an excuse to keep their distance from ACORN demands.

I don't think so

The Yes men even tried to piggyback on O'Keefe's latest 15 minutes, claiming he played Queen Elizabeth in their latest phony website, the World Economic Forum. I believe that about as much as I believed the email copy of this press release.

No guts here, though I was pretty sure it was the Yes Men. A pretty obvious fake ("We just killed the Copenhagen Summit, we crashed many economies in 2009. Clearly the present system of rampant capitalism is not worthy of salvaging."), there was a small but real chance of some weird virus instead of more shenanigans.

Oh, this is the real site, and spokesman Adrian Monck reportedly responded that "the only defense to satire is common sense!" Umm, I had a Washington Post link I'll try to track down: the story listed some wrong-headed predictions coming out of Davos in the past.

Corporations are people too

I don't know if any corporations were in the gallery, but Justice Samuel A. Alito is a hot subject in pundit-land for the latest unguarded response to a Barack Obama pronouncement to Congress.

"Not true," lip-readers claim he muttered as the President wound down his State of the Union set-piece with the ringing words "I don't think American elections should be bankrolled by America's most powerful interests or, worse, by foreign entities." Fine words, though the Supreme Court's decision to let corporations support or oppose political candidates is only lousy, not earth-shattering. Hint: check out the campaign contributions for any major candidate in the last Presidential election.

But it makes for some ringing rhetoric (He also has a fine cartoon and links to several others.) Let's see: freedom of speech, check; right-to-bear-arms, check (XE, nee Blackwater); I wonder if we can get corporations in the jury pool.

Oh, maybe just whistle

Barack Obama and John McCain may be whistling in the dark when it comes to Iraq, and it's likely both candidates know it.

"Key aides" of each have been vetted (The veterinarian has checked their wind and teeth) and kept in the loop since summer. (President George Bush officially created a Transition Coordinating Council October 9.) They've probably heard much of what's in a draft National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq. According to McClatchy Newspapers:

A nearly completed high-level U.S. intelligence analysis warns that unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iraq could unleash a new wave of violence, potentially reversing the major security and political gains achieved over the last year.

I'd bet on both candidates ignoring it, unless McCain decides on yet another 'hail Mary' pass to revive his campaign. He has (or had) an edge on foreign affairs, but he's invested a lot in being right about the surge. For Obama, it would seriously threaten his 16 month deadline.

The article also provides less-than-optimistic statements from Gen. David Petraeus, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Defense Department.

The next President's to-do list isn't getting any shorter.

Media withdrawing

It's no surprise that government officials will filter the information they release, but at the same time most news organizations are doing their own pullout.

According to the Washington Post:

U.S. military officials say they "embedded" journalists 219 times in September 2007. Last month, the number shrank to 39. Of the dozen U.S. newspapers and newspaper chains that maintained full-time bureaus in Baghdad in the early years of the war, only four are still permanently staffed by foreign correspondents. CBS and NBC no longer keep a correspondent in Baghdad year-round.

Cynically, we could say that's because bombings sell advertising, while reconstruction and infighting over power won't make the front page. There's an election going on. It's also true that newspapers in particular are hurting, with several going out of business.

Whatever the reason, we're getting less information out of Iraq at a critical time.

The greatest thing to come out of this for the world economy, if you could put it that way, would be $20 a barrel for oil. That's bigger than any tax cut in the any country. -- Rupert Murdoch, 2003

He will either go down in history as a very great president or he'll crash and burn. I'm optimistic it will be the former by a ratio of two to one. -- Rupert Murdoch, 2003

Conventional pick

Well, I'm disappointed again. No, it's not because my email from Barack Obama (well, it says it's from him) arrived hours after Joe Biden's selection was all over the news.

It's because, as I've said, Biden is part of the problem, i.e. lobbyists overrunning Washington. That's important to me, and Obama held the high ground. Biden's connections aren't 'as bad' as some others? I'll even buy that, but I'm not interested in moral relativism on this subject.

Sure, Obama hasn't been caught with his hand in the cookie jar like McCain with Keating and lobbyists aren't involved with every facet of his campaign-- like McCain. It's just that both parties and both candidates are using soft money and 'bundlers' to get around the present weak restrictions. The so-called '527' groups are sure to follow as the election heats up. With Biden's selection, I just can't see lobbying as a campaign issue anymore, and that's too bad.

But Democrats are probably pleased: a mainstream Catholic liberal with solid foreign policy credentials who plays well with blue-collar workers-- particularly in Pennsylvania. Unlike Obama, he's more than willing to go for the throat when attacked and to mount some attacks of his own. That's a nice good cop/bad cop mix, I must admit.

Republicans were prepared; McCain immediately shot off a fund-raising letter quoting Biden on Obama's lack of experience. Take that with a grain of salt: he was campaigning against Obama then and also said at that time he'd rather return to his Foreign Affairs chairmanship than be Vice President.

Republicans and 'opinion' makers must be ecstatic about Biden's reputation for inserting his foot in his mouth; expect massive distractions from the issues. Comedians are licking their lips. Obama just hasn't been giving them good material.

The 'field promotion' at the Springfield speech doesn't count, it's his first time to introduce his running mate.



Oh, and Biden has an answer to the "gaffe machine" narrative: