Obama rasa

Everyone wants a crack at President Barack Obama: demonizers to tell him off, while acolytes would probably be happy just to touch a hem on his garments. Personally, I'm still trying to figure out who is and exactly what the hell he's up to.

Some think they will get their chance this March when he stops over in Guam. My term: I haven't seen anyone phrase it that way, but Guam's still a prime coaling station. Check the oil, kick the tires, stretch your legs and it's on the road again.

Oh, yeah; "he will speak with U.S. service members on the island," according to press secretary Robert Gibbs. Stalwart young men and women, clean cut (no t-shirt slogans and signs) and in the forefront where America's homeland security begins. This sounds like a script borrowed from the latter-day George Bush.

That's not meant to be as flippant and cynical as it sounds: it's what I'd do -- I could probably write the speech. The Guam activists and CNMI politicians looking for meetings and visits will very likely be disappointed. 'Bulwark' will be used once, 'defense' and 'security' several times. Japan will be mentioned, very diplomatically because of the new government's hardened stance on Marines in Okinawa.

It's been a cold winter in Washington figuratively and literally. Time to slide away from the domestic ruckus for a foreign policy War On Terror set-piece. "We're good guys," Indonesians will be told. (Like most of our Muslim allies, their draconian laws will be glossed -- though if anyone drops the word 'madrasa' into the comments I'll attempt to throttle them digitally) "WE are the good guys," he'll assure Australians... and we really wish you'd pony up some troops.

There will be pictures of shy, smiling students and Obama's kids will probably meet a koala. I predict... success.

Somewhere, I picked up the essentially useless nugget that, unlike airliners, Air Force One lands with enough fuel to get out of Dodge. They don't exactly keep the motor running, but that's one of many precautions. I'm sure that's part of the reason for the Guam stop, as is adjusting to different time zones. You don't want your President sounding incoherent due to jet lag.

Catching the military wave

The Atlantic has a nice piece about the Guam military buildup in their November issue.

My brother sent me the link to Jeannette Lee's breezy, informative article. She covers the main issues pretty well, and it's nice to see some coverage outside of Washington's Beltway:

New planes, ships, artillery ranges, and more are all on the way. The most talked-about aspect of what’s known as “the buildup” is the pending arrival of 8,000 U.S. marines from Okinawa, Japan. The incoming service members plus their families and the accompanying civilian workforce will swell Guam’s population of 170,000 by 15 to 30 percent by 2014.

"We don’t want to be treated like a 21st-century colony," Guam Sen. Judith Guthertz is quoted as saying. "We support the buildup, as long as it’s a win-win for Guam and the military."

Stephen Roberto puts it more succinctly: "Just don’t be the loudest person in the bar."

I like the surfer story device, too.

(Reality) Check, please

Everyone on Saipan is excited about the Marines moving from Okinawa to Guam. Billions of dollars, and some of that money is bound to trickle down (oh, you've heard that one before?) to local businesses. There's even talk of having a warm base on Tinian.

Not so quick, folks. There's an interesting article on TheHill.com: With limited power, Guam delegate faces daunting obstacles on Marines transfer.

It seems we've been hearing the Pentagon spin and it's not a done deal. Madeline Bordallo has been working the House and she's got a lot of friends. Still, she only votes in committees and has no say in the U.S. Senate. In fact,

“Everybody on the committee will look out for her,” said (Hawaii Rep. Neil) Abercrombie, adding that he could only hope that Hawaii Sens. Daniel Inouye (D) and Daniel Akaka (D) would act as her surrogates in the Senate. At this point it is unclear whether the two senators will champion the issue, though Bordallo considers Inouye her mentor on Capitol Hill.

It's interesting stuff, but I was more intrigued by another Abercrombie comment:

“Be careful what you wish for. Guam will become one giant base. Guam is a tiny, little place.”

Which brings us to Tinian. Most Marines probably wouldn't vote locally, but even a small staff would likely influence elections that are usually only decided by a few votes.

Saving the best for last

Most telling, for me, were a couple of comments unrelated to the proposed base. For instance "The average member would not know much" (about Guam), according to Mississippi Rep. Gene Taylor. Georgia Rep. John Linder chimes in: "I know where it is located, I know what it used to be, but I don’t know what it is now." I wouldn't be surprised if they knew more than their average colleague.

That's bad news for the CNMI. If Guam, with a hundred year relationship, is that far off of the Congress radar, what kind of attention are we going to get, even with a non-voting Delegate? Well, maybe they've heard of our garment industry.