Jay Solly of Marianas Consulting took exception to my piece Eve of distraction. In the interest of fairness, here is the complete text of his latest Press Release. (I removed the email address, simply because I didn't want to subject him to the spam he would get if it was published on the internet.)
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: JAY SOLLY
November 19, 2009
Second Poll ‘Unnecessary’ In Light of CNMI’s Chilling Political Climate
Saipan—Upon inquiries from media outlets, Marianas Consulting announced today that no additional polling would be conducted in the CNMI leading up to the historic November 23rd gubernatorial run-off elections. The company made this decision in light of the CNMI Governor’s Office and the Covenant Party’s heightened and unparalleled energies expended the day before the November 7th General Election. Though the statistically sound poll disclosed its full methodology as thoroughly or even more so than the University of Guam’s poll published earlier that week, the Governor’s Covenant Party Chairman issued a specious press release in a classic case of “shoot the messenger” chiefly because their candidate was not prevailing. The three other candidates for Governor did not issue statements.
Further, the Governor’s Office openly engaged in eyebrow-raising back-and-forth with a private company and the account of events and depth of involvement leave more questions to be asked than were answered. Consequently, this company terminated an employee with a personal relationship to Marianas Consulting’s principal consultant the same day the poll was released. In media accounts it was acknowledged that they contacted the Governor’s Office to inform that the employee had been let go, a highly unusual action for what was a private and internal personnel matter. Even more curious, the Governor’s Covenant Party thought it appropriate to comment on this personnel issue, offering words of support for the supposed “hurt” caused, but in reality, adding insult to injury.
Principal Consultant, Jay Solly comments, “On a personal note, my family and I are grateful for the outpouring of support from the community. We love Saipan and the kindness and giving hearts exhibited. We look forward to staying and will continue working for the community. It is likely that there would have been no effort to silence, discredit, or intimidate if the numbers were in Covenant’s favor. Again, neither I, nor my company, was contracted by any campaign when this poll was conducted, but now I know with certainty for whom I will not work—the rank amateurism of the Covenant Party opposition research linking Marianas Consulting to an Ontario-based company that happens to share the name made me chuckle. Incidentally, I worked in Moscow in 2005, did they check with Vladimir Putin too?”
Marianas Consulting concedes that a run-off poll again employing random sampling in line with theories of probability would likely be informative and serve well the interests of the people, but as Mr. Solly adds, “even statistics with reported sampling error come under fire in this chilling political climate fostered to stifle dissent. This, coupled with the ‘spiral of silence’ effect—where voters are less likely to voice an opinion if they fear reprisal, job loss, or isolation from the existing political apparatus—make polling in the CNMI uniquely challenging.”
The CNMI-registered company iterates that the only polls that truly matter are election polls where the free exercise of choice is safeguarded.
About Marianas Consulting
Marianas Consulting is a strategy, government & public affairs consulting firm headquartered on the beautiful island of Saipan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, headed by Mr. Jay Solly. Jay has over 12 years of professional experience in political communications, public relations, marketing, and government arenas at the territory, state, and national level. Mr. Solly has advised, managed and worked on 26 campaigns in 14 years.
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Friday, November 20, 2009
Saturday, November 14, 2009
The Northwest Pacific by North
I've read dozens of articles about last Tuesday's elections, and the CNMI results weren't mentioned in any of them.
That's not too surprising, I suppose, because of the national media's obsession with What It All Means to Democrats' and Republicans' chances in next year's mid-term elections. A local election involving the Republican and Covenant parties doesn't fit neatly into that narrative.
Google just fed me one exception, not news but a blog at the Center for Immigration Studies titled The Elections and Immigration Policy. David North describes the election results as "one apple, two oranges – and in the distant Western Pacific, a split coconut."
Who is this guy? I thought as I read along. He's obviously knowledgeable, very obviously opinionated and he's got some sort of grudge.' An example: "There was no Democratic candidate but there were two independent ones. These are both named Guerrero, as there seems to be a shortage of last names in the islands."
Hafa? What's that got to do with the subject? I read a previous blog, with the "Disclosure: I worked for the Clinton Administration's Department of the Interior territorial office at the height of the DeLay-Abramoff power." Oh, that David North. (There was a lot of press at the time. Some was harsher, some kinder and gentler, by the usual suspects for the usual reasons.)
It's too bad, if I could ignore the drone of axes being ground, I might agree with much of what he writes. That's tough to do.
The Center for Immigration Studies is popular with people interested in the subject. I have no idea how many of them follow his blog
That's not too surprising, I suppose, because of the national media's obsession with What It All Means to Democrats' and Republicans' chances in next year's mid-term elections. A local election involving the Republican and Covenant parties doesn't fit neatly into that narrative.
Google just fed me one exception, not news but a blog at the Center for Immigration Studies titled The Elections and Immigration Policy. David North describes the election results as "one apple, two oranges – and in the distant Western Pacific, a split coconut."
Who is this guy? I thought as I read along. He's obviously knowledgeable, very obviously opinionated and he's got some sort of grudge.' An example: "There was no Democratic candidate but there were two independent ones. These are both named Guerrero, as there seems to be a shortage of last names in the islands."
Hafa? What's that got to do with the subject? I read a previous blog, with the "Disclosure: I worked for the Clinton Administration's Department of the Interior territorial office at the height of the DeLay-Abramoff power." Oh, that David North. (There was a lot of press at the time. Some was harsher, some kinder and gentler, by the usual suspects for the usual reasons.)
It's too bad, if I could ignore the drone of axes being ground, I might agree with much of what he writes. That's tough to do.
The Center for Immigration Studies is popular with people interested in the subject. I have no idea how many of them follow his blog
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Eve of distraction
Jay Solly seems to know a bit about marketing.
His shamelessly self-promoting CNMI gubernatorial 'poll' landed him on the front page of the Friday Marianas Variety and the election-day Saipan Tribune.
Not bad for a young guy who seems to be looking for a job. Unintended consequences kick in, of course.
He reportedly used his 'significant other's' (gad I hate that term) phone to survey voters. Well, not hers exactly. According to the Tribune, it's a residential phone but it belongs to Bridge Capital LLC *. They fired her, "for improper use of company resources." A company whose unrelenting campaign for gambling on Saipan has been controversial doesn't need a pissed-off Governor.
And he was pissed, or at least his minions were. That's easy to understand. Who needs to get blind-sided the day before the election by a poll showing the incumbent is in third place? The obvious --and legitimate-- questions were asked: who is this guy and who does he work for?
So Solly
So they called Bridge Capital, who quickly cut their losses... and their payroll. Pressure from the Governor's Office? I have no idea, but there's no crying in Public Relations. It seems like a move they would make with or without pressure. But Jay and the SO (girlfriend) are victims now. Stay tuned. We need two jobs now.
Who does he work for? There's nothing obvious to go by. Personally I think he free-lanced this, but time will tell. Stay tuned. With due diligence, the Governor's people checked out Marianas Consulting on the internet, and only got marianasconsulting.com, evidently some consultants in Toronto. Nay, says Solly, it's marianasconsulting.biz, which is true enough. He bought that domain name on October 26, but it's not functioning yet. The Website Title is 404 Not Found. **
Haidee V. Eugenio writes that the Tribune got Solly's Press Release Friday. I suppose he was trying to maximize coverage in both papers. He puts a brave face on it, but I don't think this is the story he expected to read.
And the voters say
Solly claims that his methods are sound, but the numbers don't add up to me-- figuratively and literally. My "Pala-Pala Poll" shows the Governor ahead of Juan Guerrero, with more than 20 percent of the vote. I guess we'll know tonight.
I could comment on the poll's design if I knew more about it. I was looking for his Press Release or other information when I tried to track down the Marianas Consulting website. Big assumption here, but if they only called landlines they would get a skewed view of the population. A lot of people only have cell phones these days, particularly younger people. Also, in this political climate, I would expect some people to hold their cards pretty close when talking to an anonymous voice on the phone.
Survey questions have to be designed very carefully. For instance, 'Do you think the Commonwealth is headed in the wrong direction?' would be leading. 'In which direction is the Commonwealth headed?' with choices would get a better result.
Then again, at least he tried, and he's sure poked himself into the public eye.
* Mo' marketing: Bridge Capital got in its own public relations licks with the irrelevant "Since June this year, the company has donated nearly $25,000 to the CNMI community."
** The WHO IS pointed at http://www.marianasconsulting.biz instead of just http://marianasconsulting.biz There's a little more information at the site, but the Press Release he posted has less information than what was provided to the local papers. I got through once. The connection has 'timed out' every other time I tried.
His shamelessly self-promoting CNMI gubernatorial 'poll' landed him on the front page of the Friday Marianas Variety and the election-day Saipan Tribune.
Not bad for a young guy who seems to be looking for a job. Unintended consequences kick in, of course.
He reportedly used his 'significant other's' (gad I hate that term) phone to survey voters. Well, not hers exactly. According to the Tribune, it's a residential phone but it belongs to Bridge Capital LLC *. They fired her, "for improper use of company resources." A company whose unrelenting campaign for gambling on Saipan has been controversial doesn't need a pissed-off Governor.
And he was pissed, or at least his minions were. That's easy to understand. Who needs to get blind-sided the day before the election by a poll showing the incumbent is in third place? The obvious --and legitimate-- questions were asked: who is this guy and who does he work for?
So Solly
So they called Bridge Capital, who quickly cut their losses... and their payroll. Pressure from the Governor's Office? I have no idea, but there's no crying in Public Relations. It seems like a move they would make with or without pressure. But Jay and the SO (girlfriend) are victims now. Stay tuned. We need two jobs now.
Who does he work for? There's nothing obvious to go by. Personally I think he free-lanced this, but time will tell. Stay tuned. With due diligence, the Governor's people checked out Marianas Consulting on the internet, and only got marianasconsulting.com, evidently some consultants in Toronto. Nay, says Solly, it's marianasconsulting.biz, which is true enough. He bought that domain name on October 26, but it's not functioning yet. The Website Title is 404 Not Found. **
Haidee V. Eugenio writes that the Tribune got Solly's Press Release Friday. I suppose he was trying to maximize coverage in both papers. He puts a brave face on it, but I don't think this is the story he expected to read.
And the voters say
Solly claims that his methods are sound, but the numbers don't add up to me-- figuratively and literally. My "Pala-Pala Poll" shows the Governor ahead of Juan Guerrero, with more than 20 percent of the vote. I guess we'll know tonight.
I could comment on the poll's design if I knew more about it. I was looking for his Press Release or other information when I tried to track down the Marianas Consulting website. Big assumption here, but if they only called landlines they would get a skewed view of the population. A lot of people only have cell phones these days, particularly younger people. Also, in this political climate, I would expect some people to hold their cards pretty close when talking to an anonymous voice on the phone.
Survey questions have to be designed very carefully. For instance, 'Do you think the Commonwealth is headed in the wrong direction?' would be leading. 'In which direction is the Commonwealth headed?' with choices would get a better result.
Then again, at least he tried, and he's sure poked himself into the public eye.
* Mo' marketing: Bridge Capital got in its own public relations licks with the irrelevant "Since June this year, the company has donated nearly $25,000 to the CNMI community."
** The WHO IS pointed at http://www.marianasconsulting.biz instead of just http://marianasconsulting.biz There's a little more information at the site, but the Press Release he posted has less information than what was provided to the local papers. I got through once. The connection has 'timed out' every other time I tried.
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